Value
9.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
LDI · Why this verdict
Why loanDepot (LDI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
loanDepot trades at a deeply discounted valuation (forward P/E 5.6x, PEG 0.03), implying the market has priced in severe distress that may not be fully warranted. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated while the stock closes some of the gap toward its analyst-target take-profit level. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-zero PEG at a company with a confirmed price downtrend and a sub-floor quality score is a classic value-trap signature rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
loanDepot has missed EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters (average surprise -193%), reflecting deep structural pressure in the mortgage-origination business. Earnings | The company needs at least one clean beat in coming reports to signal the earnings picture is stabilizing. | →Stable |
| CounterA high-rate mortgage environment can produce outsized percentage misses on a very small earnings base without indicating the business itself is deteriorating further. | ||
The company's quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat, a structural concern for a mortgage originator navigating a challenging rate environment. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb back toward the 4.0 floor as the business demonstrates more resilient margins. | →Stable |
| CounterMortgage originators' quality metrics are highly cyclical and tied to interest-rate cycles, so a temporarily depressed quality score doesn't necessarily reflect a permanent competitive problem. | ||
The stock is attempting a technical recovery after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at a neutral-to-firm 57, while volume is accumulating. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average in coming months if the recovery is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterThe moving average slope remains a confirmed downtrend, and a rising RSI off deeply oversold levels is common even within a continuing structural decline. | ||
An extremely elevated put/call ratio (7.77) alongside high implied volatility (148%) shows the options market is heavily positioned for continued volatility or downside. Options | The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels if downside fears ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA skewed put/call ratio at a heavily-shorted small float can also reflect hedging of existing long positions rather than a bearish directional bet. | ||
loanDepot trades at a deeply discounted valuation (forward P/E 5.6x, PEG 0.03), implying the market has priced in severe distress that may not be fully warranted.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated while the stock closes some of the gap toward its analyst-target take-profit level.
CounterA near-zero PEG at a company with a confirmed price downtrend and a sub-floor quality score is a classic value-trap signature rather than a genuine bargain.
loanDepot has missed EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters (average surprise -193%), reflecting deep structural pressure in the mortgage-origination business.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company needs at least one clean beat in coming reports to signal the earnings picture is stabilizing.
CounterA high-rate mortgage environment can produce outsized percentage misses on a very small earnings base without indicating the business itself is deteriorating further.
The company's quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat, a structural concern for a mortgage originator navigating a challenging rate environment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back toward the 4.0 floor as the business demonstrates more resilient margins.
CounterMortgage originators' quality metrics are highly cyclical and tied to interest-rate cycles, so a temporarily depressed quality score doesn't necessarily reflect a permanent competitive problem.
The stock is attempting a technical recovery after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at a neutral-to-firm 57, while volume is accumulating.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average in coming months if the recovery is genuine.
CounterThe moving average slope remains a confirmed downtrend, and a rising RSI off deeply oversold levels is common even within a continuing structural decline.
An extremely elevated put/call ratio (7.77) alongside high implied volatility (148%) shows the options market is heavily positioned for continued volatility or downside.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels if downside fears ease.
CounterA skewed put/call ratio at a heavily-shorted small float can also reflect hedging of existing long positions rather than a bearish directional bet.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
loanDepot trades at a deep discount and is attempting a technical recovery, but a confirmed downtrend, a three-quarter earnings-miss streak, extreme put/call hedging, and sub-floor quality argue the discount reflects real distress rather than a bargain.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
0.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 51.00
- ▸High IV: 300%
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.61
Upside
+39.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -78% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.9, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 0.6, Catalyst at 2.5, and Peer rank at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Discount
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, more than 30x the current 0.03, signaling the value case has closed.
- P2Technical Recovery From Death Cross
Trip ifPrice closes below the $1.14 stop-loss, more than 7% under the $1.23 spot, confirming the downtrend rather than a recovery.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates for a 4th consecutive quarter, extending the average surprise below -190%.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0, down from the current 7.77, alongside implied volatility below 80%.
- P5Sub Floor Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0, matching the engine's floor, up from the current 2.9.