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PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, InSell5.0·$81.66+1.21%
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PennyMac Financial Services, In (PFSI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT).

PennyMac Financial Services is a non-bank mortgage producer and servicer with a $733.6B UPB servicing portfolio and $152.4B in loan production in 2025, operating through correspondent, broker direct, and consumer direct lending channels. Revenue comes from loan origination fees,... Read more

$81.66+23.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#4 of 4 Mortgage Finance
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.47%(5y avg 1.18%)Payout12.75%sustainable
Stop $76.90Target $101.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$116.29+42.4%7 analysts
$101.17our TP
$81.66price
$116.29mean
$150

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 42%
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.7
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth-16.6%
Beta1.44
Dividend1.47%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$85+4.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
    10-K Item 1A: 'PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust ("PMT") is a significant source of business for our mortgage banking activities, and the termination of, or material adverse change in, the terms of this relationship...could adversely affect our business'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -16.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
3.5
Declining revenue: -17%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.5
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $77.67Resistance $87.55

Price Targets

$77
$101
A.Upside+23.9%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFSI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $76.90. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the PFSI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.17 (+23.9% upside). Prior stop was $76.90. Stop-loss: $76.90.

What are the risks of investing in PFSI?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT); Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is PFSI overvalued or undervalued?

PennyMac Financial Services, In trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFSI?

15 analysts cover PFSI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $116.

What does PennyMac Financial Services, In do?PennyMac Financial Services is a non-bank mortgage producer and servicer with a $733.6B UPB servicing portfolio and...

PennyMac Financial Services is a non-bank mortgage producer and servicer with a $733.6B UPB servicing portfolio and $152.4B in loan production in 2025, operating through correspondent, broker direct, and consumer direct lending channels. Revenue comes from loan origination fees, gain-on-sale, and net servicing fees; PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) is a significant affiliated counterparty for both production and subservicing.

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