Kearny Financial screens as attractively valued with a strong growth profile and a technical breakout on a golden cross, backed by bullish insider buying, but the stock has already reached its analyst target with a negative asymmetry ratio, a negative news modifier that downgraded the action note toward sell, and two recent earnings misses.
Thesis pillars
- Target Reached News Downgrade→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Strong Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Kearny Financial (KRNY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $9.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: non-owner occupied commercial real estate.
Kearny Financial is the Maryland-incorporated holding company for Kearny Bank, a New Jersey-chartered savings bank operating 43 branches primarily across northern New Jersey and Brooklyn/Staten Island, New York. The bank funds a $5.8 billion loan portfolio -- nearly half in... Read more
Sell if holding. At $9.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: non-owner occupied commercial real estate. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Kearny Financial
About Kearny Financial
Kearny Financial's bank subsidiary held $5.8 billion in total loans and deposits of a similar scale as of June 30, 2025, with multi-family mortgages comprising 46.6% of the loan book and one- to four-family residential mortgages another 30.1%. Lending is concentrated in New Jersey and New York, where 93.3% of the bank's one- to four-family residential mortgages are secured, and the bank operates 43 branch offices from its Fairfield, New Jersey headquarters.
Kearny Bank funds its lending primarily through core non-maturity deposits, which totaled $3.70 billion, or 65.2% of total deposits, supplemented by $2.0 billion of wholesale funding -- about 26.0% of total assets -- including brokered deposits and FHLB borrowings. The bank has shifted its strategy from a traditional thrift toward commercial banking, growing commercial and industrial loans, owner-occupied commercial real estate and home equity lines of credit to improve net interest margin, while public funds deposits from New Jersey municipalities and school districts made up 9.5% of total deposits at June 30, 2025. Kearny Bank is regulated by the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance and, as a nonmember institution, the FDIC, and maintained a 13.61% Common Equity Tier 1 ratio well above regulatory minimums.
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Kearny's non-owner occupied commercial real estate exposure equaled 535% of the Bank's total risk-based capital at June 30, 2025, far above the 300% threshold at which joint FDIC, OCC and Federal Reserve guidance triggers heightened supervisory scrutiny of a bank's CRE concentration -- though the 10-K notes the portfolio grew just 7% over the preceding 36 months, below the Guidance's 50% growth trigger. Combined with 75.5% of the loan portfolio carrying fixed rates and a significant share of loans scheduled to reset in fiscal 2026 and 2027, Kearny's earnings remain sensitive to both regulatory reaction to CRE concentration and net interest margin compression as rates evolve.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Kearny Financial's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliomulti-family mortgage loans47%10-K Item 1: 'multi-family mortgage loans totaled $2.71 billion, or 46.6% of our loan portfolio'
- HIGHloan_portfolionon-owner occupied commercial real estate10-K Item 1A: 'Our level of non-owner occupied commercial real estate equaled 535% of Bank total risk-based capital at June 30, 2025'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliowholesale funding10-K Item 1A: 'wholesale funding totaled $2.0 billion, or approximately 26.0% of total assets.'
- LOWloan_portfoliopublic funds deposits9.5%10-K Item 1A: '$539.1 million, or 9.5% of our total deposits, consisted of public funds deposits from local government entities in the state of New Jersey'
- HIGHGeographicNew Jersey and New York93%10-K Item 1: '$1.63 billion, or 93.3%, of our one- to four-family residential mortgage loans were secured by properties located within New Jersey and New York'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $9.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: non-owner occupied commercial real estate. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $8.59. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.47 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $8.59. Stop-loss: $8.59.
Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: non-owner occupied commercial real estate; Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey and New York (93.3%).
Kearny Financial trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover KRNY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $10.
What does Kearny Financial do?Kearny Financial is the Maryland-incorporated holding company for Kearny Bank, a New Jersey-chartered savings bank...
Kearny Financial is the Maryland-incorporated holding company for Kearny Bank, a New Jersey-chartered savings bank operating 43 branches primarily across northern New Jersey and Brooklyn/Staten Island, New York. The bank funds a $5.8 billion loan portfolio -- nearly half in multi-family mortgages -- through deposits and wholesale borrowings, with core non-maturity deposits comprising 65.2% of its total deposit base as of June 30, 2025.