Value
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
KRNY · Why this verdict
Why Kearny Financial (KRNY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -13.8% of downside versus the modeled fair value, with a negative news modifier downgrading the action note from hold-if-holding toward sell-if-holding. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid. | →Stable |
| CounterThe passed momentum gate at 5.9 and ongoing golden-cross breakout could justify an upward revision to the analyst target before the stock needs to correct. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.9x with a PEG of 0.24, alongside a strong growth profile of 6.9% revenue growth and a growth composite score of 8.4. Bull case | Forward P/E should stay below 15x and revenue growth should remain above 5% over the next 12 months if the growth-at-a-discount thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (rated 2.0 for coverage depth) dampens confidence in the growth and valuation signals, since they rest on fewer independent estimates. | ||
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -6.06%. Bear case | The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss trend is set to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe misses were modest in magnitude (-6.25% and -15.38%) and interspersed with in-line quarters, suggesting a mild forecasting gap rather than a structural earnings problem. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 68 and bullish MACD, with the momentum gate passing at 5.9 against the engine's 5.5 threshold. Chart pattern detection | The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout in a small stock ($0.6B market cap, described as below institutional reach) near its 52-week high can reverse quickly without sustained institutional buying support. | ||
Insiders bought a net $190,055 (0.032% of market cap) in the last 90 days across 11 buy transactions versus 2 sells, producing a bullish insider signal. Insider | Insider signal should remain bullish or neutral with continued net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bullish read is predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap bought are both modest, so this may reflect routine compensation-related purchases rather than a strong conviction signal. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -13.8% of downside versus the modeled fair value, with a negative news modifier downgrading the action note from hold-if-holding toward sell-if-holding.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid.
CounterThe passed momentum gate at 5.9 and ongoing golden-cross breakout could justify an upward revision to the analyst target before the stock needs to correct.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.9x with a PEG of 0.24, alongside a strong growth profile of 6.9% revenue growth and a growth composite score of 8.4.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 15x and revenue growth should remain above 5% over the next 12 months if the growth-at-a-discount thesis holds.
CounterLight analyst coverage (rated 2.0 for coverage depth) dampens confidence in the growth and valuation signals, since they rest on fewer independent estimates.
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -6.06%.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss trend is set to reverse.
CounterThe misses were modest in magnitude (-6.25% and -15.38%) and interspersed with in-line quarters, suggesting a mild forecasting gap rather than a structural earnings problem.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 68 and bullish MACD, with the momentum gate passing at 5.9 against the engine's 5.5 threshold.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds.
CounterA breakout in a small stock ($0.6B market cap, described as below institutional reach) near its 52-week high can reverse quickly without sustained institutional buying support.
Insiders bought a net $190,055 (0.032% of market cap) in the last 90 days across 11 buy transactions versus 2 sells, producing a bullish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should remain bullish or neutral with continued net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bullish read is predictive.
CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap bought are both modest, so this may reflect routine compensation-related purchases rather than a strong conviction signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kearny Financial screens as attractively valued with a strong growth profile and a technical breakout on a golden cross, backed by bullish insider buying, but the stock has already reached its analyst target with a negative asymmetry ratio, a negative news modifier that downgraded the action note toward sell, and two recent earnings misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $190,055 (0.032% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
- ▸High IV: 139%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.26
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.8; weakest: Catalyst at 3.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Growth at 8.4, and Insider at 7.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Peer rank at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached News Downgrade
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -3.0, worse than the current -1.02.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x, up from the current 11.9x, eroding the value discount.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for a 3rd consecutive quarter, extending the current miss streak.
- P4Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 68, breaking the breakout setup.
- P5Bullish Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider buying reverses into net selling exceeding $200,000 over a 90-day period.