Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
KRNY · Why this verdict
Why Kearny Financial (KRNY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kearny Financial is a cheap regional bank (forward P/E 9.4x) with solid margins and recent insider buying, but it has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades 2.5% above the analyst target, leaving little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 21% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but ROE and ROA components are only 1.6 and 0.3 out of 10 with no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | ROE should improve above 6% as earnings per share keep rising over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 4.7% dividend with a dividend-safety score of 3.5/10 and a put/call ratio of 1.33 point to stress that margins do not capture. | ||
Forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.24, so the shares look inexpensive relative to expected earnings. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings per share rise over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPeer value rank is only 4.0/10 and returns are low (ROE component 1.6/10), so the multiple may be fair for a weak-return bank. | ||
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.16 versus $0.17 in October 2026, with an average surprise of -7.1%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should meet or beat estimates of about $0.17 per quarter over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses are small in dollar terms (one or two cents), and reported EPS is trending up from $0.10 to $0.16 over two years. | ||
At $9.30 the shares trade 2.5% above the $9.07 analyst target against 5.2% downside to the $8.86 stop. Analyst target | Earnings progress should lift analyst targets above $9.30 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (3.0), so the target is a weak signal, and momentum remains strong at 7.2/10. | ||
Insiders bought $198,457 of stock in 6 purchases over 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal at 0.033% of market cap. Insider | Insider purchases should continue and net buying should stay positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe amount is modest at 0.033% of market cap, so it may not reflect strong conviction. | ||
Margins are strong at 21% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but ROE and ROA components are only 1.6 and 0.3 out of 10 with no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should improve above 6% as earnings per share keep rising over 12 months.
CounterA 4.7% dividend with a dividend-safety score of 3.5/10 and a put/call ratio of 1.33 point to stress that margins do not capture.
Forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.24, so the shares look inexpensive relative to expected earnings.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings per share rise over the next 12 months.
CounterPeer value rank is only 4.0/10 and returns are low (ROE component 1.6/10), so the multiple may be fair for a weak-return bank.
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.16 versus $0.17 in October 2026, with an average surprise of -7.1%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates of about $0.17 per quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterMisses are small in dollar terms (one or two cents), and reported EPS is trending up from $0.10 to $0.16 over two years.
At $9.30 the shares trade 2.5% above the $9.07 analyst target against 5.2% downside to the $8.86 stop.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings progress should lift analyst targets above $9.30 over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (3.0), so the target is a weak signal, and momentum remains strong at 7.2/10.
Insiders bought $198,457 of stock in 6 purchases over 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal at 0.033% of market cap.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider purchases should continue and net buying should stay positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe amount is modest at 0.033% of market cap, so it may not reflect strong conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $60,183 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 4.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-3.9%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.78 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Sentiment at 6.1, and Insider at 5.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.7, Peer rank at 2.8, and Growth at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.4x.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $8.86 stop-loss level.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider net purchases over 90 days fall to less than $0 (net selling).
- P5Strong Margins Weak Returns
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% from the current 21%.