John B. Sanfilippo & Son has strung together a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and screens as attractively valued, but the stock has already reached its price target near a 52-week high, leaving an unfavorable stated risk/reward, an overbought technical setup, and a lingering earnings-quality gap.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- Overbought Near 52 Week High↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Quality Cash Conversion Gap↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, engages in the process and distribution of tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-23Recent Developments — John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JBSS Q4 EPS $0.71 misses $1.20 estimate; sales beat - scanx.trade — scanx.trade negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son (NASDAQ:JBSS) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.46 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son Fiscal Q4 Earnings Fall, Net Sales Rise - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
Generated 2026-08-23T02:21:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart Inc.40%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Walmart Inc. accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales for fiscal 2025, 39% of our net sales for fiscal 2024 and 36% of our net sales for fiscal 2023.'
- LOWCustomerTarget Corporation11%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Target Corporation accounted for approximately 11% of our net sales for fiscal 2025, 13% of our net sales for fiscal 2024 and 15% of our net sales for fiscal 2023.'
- MEDIUMCommodityforeign-sourced nuts and dried fruit28%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, approximately 28% of the dollar value of our total nut and dried fruit purchases was from foreign sources.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $70.38. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $86.70 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $70.38. Stop-loss: $70.38.
Weak growth; Negative momentum.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover JBSS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $102.
What does John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. do?John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, engages in the process and distribution of...
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, engages in the process and distribution of tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings; and bar product line, including chewy granola, fruit and grain, sweet and salty, dipped chewy granola, crunchy, energy, fiber, nut, fig, and protein bars. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; salad toppings, dried fruit and chocolate, and yogurt coated products; recipe ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, snack mixes, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts brands as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.