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GFIGold Fields LimitedBuy Wait7.4·$32.25-3.82%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Fields is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 71% year-over-year growth, and an attractive forward valuation near 7 times earnings, though an extreme put/call ratio and a pullback below the 200-day moving average suggest elevated near-term uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationStable
  • High Quality Wide Moat FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $32.74 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

$32.25+29.7% A.UpsideScore 7.4/10#3 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.49%
IncomeYield7.19%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Entry $32.74(support + ATR (held))Stop $30.24Target $42.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$48.34+49.9%8 analysts
$42.05our TP
$32.25price
$48.34mean
$57

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $32.74 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.8 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.8) - hard block; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 25, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.4/10
High-quality business
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.2
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$30.0B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn40.8%
ROE51.9%
Rev Growth71.4%
Beta0.52
Dividend7.19%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$20-38.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)SECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.11Resistance $35.59

Price Targets

$30
$33
$42
A.Upside+29.7%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 3.8 < 4.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.8) - hard block
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-25 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFI stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $32.74 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.8 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.8) - hard block; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $42.05 (+30.4%), stop $30.24 (−6.6%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Score 7.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.05 (+29.7% upside). Target $42.05 (+30.4%), stop $30.24 (−6.6%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Stop-loss: $30.24.

What are the risks of investing in GFI?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GFI overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Fields Limited trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GFI?

14 analysts cover GFI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Gold Fields Limited do?Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru,...

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Related stocks: ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation)
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