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CSLCarlisle Companies IncorporatedSell5.5·$327.92-2.18%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Carlisle Companies shows strong price momentum with a golden cross and volume accumulation, and posts a return on equity of 38% that ranks superior to peers — but the stock has essentially reached analyst targets with only 0.9% headroom to the take-profit level and a risk/reward of 0.14-to-1; declining revenue of negative 4% and a dividend payout ratio above 100% of earnings create pressure on the financial profile if growth does not recover.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Momentum BreakoutDeteriorating
  • Superior Return On EquityStable
  • Target Exhausted Thin UpsideImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityHigh Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $327.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative building envelope products and solutions for more energy-efficient buildings. Through our building products businesses, Carlisle Construction Materials and... Read more

$327.92+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#13 of 25 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.03%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 1.03%)Payout24.97%sustainable
Stop $317.13Target $358.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$411.88+25.6%8 analysts
$358.33our TP
$327.92price
$411.88mean
$475

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $327.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14

Recent Developments — Carlisle Companies Incorporated

Generated 2026-09-14T22:07:00Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn14.2%
ROE39.2%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta0.83
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$210-36.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $326.94Resistance $372.74

Price Targets

$317
$358
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $327.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $317.13. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the CSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $358.33 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $317.13. Stop-loss: $317.13.

What are the risks of investing in CSL?

Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is CSL overvalued or undervalued?

Carlisle Companies Incorporated trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSL?

17 analysts cover CSL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $412.

What does Carlisle Companies Incorporated do?Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative...

Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative building envelope products and solutions for more energy-efficient buildings. Through our building products businesses, Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies, and family of leading brands, Carlisle delivers innovative, labor reducing and environmentally responsible products and solutions to customers through the Carlisle Experience.

Related stocks: MAIR (Madison Air Solutions Corporati) · SPXC (SPX Technologies, Inc.) · WMS (Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.) · GFF (Griffon Corporation) · AAON (AAON, Inc.)
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