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GFFGriffon CorporationSell5.0·$90.16+3.95%
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Griffon Corporation (GFF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. At $90.16, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through Home Depot and Menards) and Defense Electronics (surveillance, communications, and detection products for U.S. military via Telephonics). It earns revenue through... Read more

$90.16+14.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#10 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.44%
IncomeYield1.01%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout78.43%
Stop $84.59Target $102.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$118.29+31.2%7 analysts
$102.91our TP
$90.16price
$118.29mean
$135

Sell if holding. At $90.16, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)85.0
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.38
Dividend1.01%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.6
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
4.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.6
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $77.81Resistance $91.34

Price Targets

$85
$103
A.Upside+14.1%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $90.16, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $84.59. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GFF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.91 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $84.59. Stop-loss: $84.59.

What are the risks of investing in GFF?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is GFF overvalued or undervalued?

Griffon Corporation trades at a P/E of 85.0 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFF?

11 analysts cover GFF with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $118.

What does Griffon Corporation do?Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through...

Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through Home Depot and Menards) and Defense Electronics (surveillance, communications, and detection products for U.S. military via Telephonics). It earns revenue through exclusive retail partnerships and long-term U.S. government contracts.

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