A high-quality consumer defensive franchise with strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the current price has closed virtually all available upside with only 0.4% to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.08; supply chain concentration and weak earnings growth add meaningful downside risk for any new position.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Upside Essentially Exhausted→Stable
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: glass supplier; Weak growth.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets over 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, el Jimador, and Chambord. The Brown... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: glass supplier; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman sold its portfolio of more than 40 spirit, RTD, and wine brands in over 170 countries during fiscal 2025, with the United States - its largest market - generating 44% of net sales and Mexico, Germany, Australia, and the U.K. each contributing 4-7%. The two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales. Brown-Forman employed approximately 5,000 people across six continents as of fiscal year-end 2025.
Brown-Forman earns revenue selling premium-and-above beverage alcohol - led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, its primary revenue driver, alongside Woodford Reserve and Old Forester bourbons, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, Diplomático rum, Gin Mare, Scotch whiskies The Glendronach, Benriach, and Glenglassaugh, and Chambord liqueur - through a mix of owned distribution companies in 17-18 countries and third-party distributors elsewhere, plus sales to U.S. distributors or state-controlled alcohol systems and Canadian provincial governments. Its Jack & Coke ready-to-drink partnership with The Coca-Cola Company, launched in 2022, has expanded to more than 25 markets. Because whiskeys, tequilas, and rums require years of aging, Brown-Forman carries inventory well in excess of near-term sales, forecasting agave and grain needs years ahead of bottling. Key competitors include Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, Campari, LVMH, Rémy Cointreau, and Suntory Global Spirits.
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A distinct risk beyond brand-health is trade policy: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces pulled all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in retaliation for a U.S.-announced 25% tariff on Canadian goods, illustrating how quickly a single tariff action can translate into a market-wide de-listing rather than just a cost increase. The filing also discloses that Brown-Forman ended its Korbel sales, marketing, and distribution agreement effective June 30, 2025, and closed its last remaining barrel-making operation, shifting oak barrel sourcing entirely to an external supplier - two portfolio and supply-chain changes layered on top of tariff exposure that together concentrate more of the company's cost structure with outside counterparties.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue and Jack Daniel's is an iconic global trademark with a loyal consumer fan base.'
- HIGHSupplierglass supplier10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire effective May 1, 2026; Peters was previously EVP, Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: glass supplier; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $29.12 (+9.3%), stop $25.65 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.12 (+9.3% upside). Target $29.12 (+9.3%), stop $25.65 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $25.65.
Concentration risk — Supplier: glass supplier; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets over 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands led by Jack...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets over 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, el Jimador, and Chambord. The Brown family controls more than 50% of voting stock, making it a controlled company; it sells in over 170 countries, with the United States accounting for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales and its two largest customers together representing about 24% of consolidated net sales.