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APPSDigital Turbine, Inc.Sell5.5·$10.60+2.07%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

APPS screens statistically cheap with rising forward estimates and a solid recent beat rate, but value-trap signals around leverage and margins, quality below the required floor, and defensive short and options positioning keep this a high-risk name.

Thesis pillars

  • Steep Valuation DiscountStable
  • Value Trap Leverage MarginsStable
  • Quality Below Required FloorStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.60: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Digital Turbine operates two mobile segments: On Device Solutions, which pre-installs apps and content through wireless carrier and OEM partnerships, and App Growth Platform, a demand-side advertising and ad-monetization platform for app developers and brands. Revenue comes... Read more

$10.60+27.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#105 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.81%
Stop $9.77Target $13.33(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$8.75-17.5%2 analysts
$13.33our TP
$10.60price
$8.75mean
$8
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.60: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Digital Turbine, Inc.

About Digital Turbine, Inc.

Digital Turbine operates two segments — On Device Solutions, which pre-loads and delivers mobile apps and content through partnerships with wireless carriers and OEMs, and App Growth Platform, which runs advertising and ad-monetization services for app developers and brands — after completing a company-wide transformation program with layoffs in November 2024 and January 2025. As of March 31, 2026, the company employed 620 full-time staff globally, with product development spending of $40.5 million for the fiscal year.

Digital Turbine's On Device Solutions business compensates wireless carriers and OEMs under revenue-share agreements for app-install and content-media placements, including programmatic ad-exchange CPM revenue, CPC-based sponsored and editorial content, and SingleTap one-touch app installs, while its App Growth Platform serves app developers, brands, and agencies through its demand-side platform and Offer Wall, paying publishers via revenue share or CPM, CPI, CPP, or CPA arrangements. For each of fiscal 2026, 2025, and 2024, no single supply partner or customer accounted for more than 10% of net revenue, though the company discloses that a significant portion of its ODS revenue depends on a limited number of wireless carriers, and both carrier/OEM and advertiser contracts are typically short-term or cancellable without penalty. The company competes against Google Play, Meta, Snap, Unity Software, AppLovin, and InMobi, some of which are simultaneously customers and rivals, and increasingly relies on third-party AI partners for the data and infrastructure behind its ad-monetization models.

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Digital Turbine's competitive position carries a frenemy dynamic: Google, Meta, Snap, and Unity Software appear in the 10-K both as advertising-platform competitors and, in some cases, as customers or partners. That overlap means a shift in how Google prioritizes Play Store distribution, or how a carrier weighs building an in-house app-delivery tool against licensing Digital Turbine's ODS platform, could shrink both its addressable market and its customer base at once. The 10-K flags that existing wireless carriers could decide to develop their own solutions rather than continue using Digital Turbine's suite of products, a risk concentrated in the same limited set of carrier relationships the ODS segment depends on for a significant share of its revenue.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Digital Turbine, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-29.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn-6.7%
ROE-21.8%
Rev Growth19.6%
Beta2.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.19bullish
IV108%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerwireless carriers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our ODS business is derived from a limited number of wireless carriers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.7
Operating Margin
3.0
Fcf Quality
3.9
Current Ratio
4.5
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
5.7
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 1.8%)No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
6.5
Value Rank
7.1
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.21Resistance $13.60

Price Targets

$10
$13
A.Upside+25.8%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-29.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APPS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.60: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.77. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.33 (+27.0% upside). Prior stop was $9.77. Stop-loss: $9.77.

What are the risks of investing in APPS?

Target reached (-29.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is APPS overvalued or undervalued?

Digital Turbine, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APPS?

8 analysts cover APPS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Digital Turbine, Inc. do?Digital Turbine operates two mobile segments: On Device Solutions, which pre-installs apps and content through wireless...

Digital Turbine operates two mobile segments: On Device Solutions, which pre-installs apps and content through wireless carrier and OEM partnerships, and App Growth Platform, a demand-side advertising and ad-monetization platform for app developers and brands. Revenue comes mainly from carrier/OEM revenue-share deals and CPM/CPI/CPC advertising fees; no single customer or supply partner exceeded 10% of net revenue in fiscal 2026, 2025, or 2024, though a significant share of ODS revenue depends on a limited number of wireless carriers.

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