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AITApplied Industrial TechnologiesSell5.8·$323.78+1.63%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Applied Industrial Technologies is a high-quality industrial distribution franchise — earning a perfect 9-out-of-9 Piotroski financial health score and recognized as best-in-class among peers on margins — but the stock trades just 1.2% below its price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.26-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable for new exposure. Falling on-balance volume and a 2.2x average-volume surge on a recent selloff day introduce a near-term distribution signal that adds caution to an otherwise sound fundamental picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Stretched Valuation Unfavorable Risk RewardStable
  • Piotroski Perfect Score Best In Class MarginsStable
  • Bearish Volume Distribution SignalStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $323.78: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%).

Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products - including bearings, power transmission, fluid power, and flow control components - and provides related engineering, repair, and systems-integration services through roughly... Read more

$323.78+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 20 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.05%
IncomeYield0.63%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout17.72%sustainable
Stop $307.64Target $348.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$400.00+23.5%6 analysts
$348.00our TP
$323.78price
$400.00mean
$420

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $323.78: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Applied Industrial Technologies

About Applied Industrial Technologies

Applied Industrial Technologies split fiscal 2025 sales 66% Service Center and 34% Engineered Solutions, with Engineered Solutions contributing more than 40% of consolidated EBITDA despite its smaller sales share. The distributor stocks more than 9.2 million SKUs across roughly 600 facilities and about 6,800 employee associates in seven countries. Sales were 88% U.S.-generated in fiscal 2025, with Canada contributing 6% and the remainder split among Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Costa Rica.

Applied earns distribution margin reselling industrial bearings, power transmission products, motors, belting, hydraulic and pneumatic components, and specialty flow control and automation equipment sourced from thousands of manufacturers as a non-exclusive distributor, then layers on service revenue from inventory management, engineering, systems integration, and repair work performed through its service centers and shop network. The Service Center segment handles MRO-focused local distribution and break-fix response, while Engineered Solutions designs, integrates, and repairs fluid power, flow control, and automation systems for OEMs and process industries such as chemicals, life sciences, and food and beverage. Acquisitions have been central to expanding Engineered Solutions' automation and flow control capabilities and remain, per the filing, an important element of future growth given industry fragmentation. Applied purchases from thousands of suppliers and sells to thousands of customers across industries including aggregates, forest products, oil and gas, and utilities, with no single customer exceeding 5% of fiscal 2025 sales.

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A structural risk distinct from customer concentration is Applied's dependence on supplier authorizations that it does not control: the 10-K notes that many key-supplier relationships, while longstanding, are terminable by either party, and that losing a key supplier authorization or facing a substantial cut in product availability could put the company at a competitive disadvantage. The filing also flags that supplier incentive payments - some of which require year-over-year purchase growth to earn - can work against Applied during demand downturns, since pulling back inventory purchases to match falling customer demand can simultaneously cost the company supplier rebates, a dynamic that ties profitability to purchasing decisions made in response to customers rather than to supplier relationships alone.

See also: Industrials · Industrial Distribution

From Applied Industrial Technologies's most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.5%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.6
P/E (Fwd)24.5
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta0.83
Dividend0.63%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.39bearish
IV50%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our operations are primarily based in the United States where 88% of our fiscal 2025 sales were generated.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $314.85Resistance $365.27

Price Targets

$308
$348
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts13
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$400

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $323.78: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $307.64. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $348.00 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $307.64. Stop-loss: $307.64.

What are the risks of investing in AIT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AIT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Industrial Technologies trades at a P/E of 29.6 (forward 24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AIT?

13 analysts cover AIT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $400.

What does Applied Industrial Technologies do?Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products - including...

Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products - including bearings, power transmission, fluid power, and flow control components - and provides related engineering, repair, and systems-integration services through roughly 600 facilities and 6,800 employee associates, primarily serving MRO and OEM customers across North America. The company operates two segments, Service Center (66% of fiscal 2025 sales) and the higher-margin Engineered Solutions (34%), with 88% of fiscal 2025 sales generated in the United States and no single customer ex

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