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AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.Hold6.3·$19.58-2.83%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Majestic Silver shows 95% year-over-year revenue growth, exceptional free cash flow conversion, and an attractively valued multiple with 42% analyst upside, but high leverage at a debt-to-equity of 9.5 and a spotty earnings delivery record require caution before building a full position.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Analyst UpsideDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Revenue GrowthStable
  • Exceptional Cash ConversionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Silver

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in North America. The company explores for silver and gold deposits. Its projects include the San Dimas silver/gold mine covering an area of approximately... Read more

$19.58+7.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 6 Silver
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.04%
IncomeYield0.31%(5y avg 0.27%)Payout5.06%sustainable
Stop $18.19Target $21.04(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$24.75+26.4%2 analysts
$21.04our TP
$19.58price
$24.75mean
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.6%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth57.3%
Beta2.19
Dividend0.31%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C6.57bearish
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.1
Ma Position
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.47Resistance $22.19

Price Targets

$18
$21
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $21.04 (+7.5%), stop $18.19 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.04 (+7.6% upside). Target $21.04 (+7.5%), stop $18.19 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $18.19.

What are the risks of investing in AG?

Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AG overvalued or undervalued?

First Majestic Silver Corp. trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AG?

13 analysts cover AG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.

What does First Majestic Silver Corp. do?First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties...

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in North America. The company explores for silver and gold deposits. Its projects include the San Dimas silver/gold mine covering an area of approximately 71,867 hectares located in Durango State, Mexico; the Santa Elena silver/gold mine that covers an area of approximately 102,244 hectares located in Sonora State, Mexico; the Los Gatos Silver Mine covering an area of approximately 103,000 hectares located in Chihuahua, Mexico; and the La Encantada silver mine that covers an area of approximately 4,076 hectares located in Coahuila State, Mexico. The company was formerly known as First Majestic Resource Corp. and changed its name to First Majestic Silver Corp. in November 2006. First Majestic Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) · EXK (Endeavour Silver Corporation) · SVM (Silvercorp Metals Inc.) · NEWP (New Pacific Metals Corp.) · HSLV (Highlander Silver Corp.)
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