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ZLABZai Lab LimitedSell4.5·$17.08-3.17%
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Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Zai Lab is a commercial-stage global biopharma with substantial operations in Greater China focused on oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and infectious disease, with 7 commercially launched products including ZEJULA, VYVGART, NUZYRA, and AUGTYRO. Revenue is generated from... Read more

$17.08+69.7% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#132 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-3.70%
Stop $15.88Target $28.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.5:1
Analyst target$33.30+95.0%12 analysts
$28.97our TP
$17.08price
$33.30mean
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China (all commercial operations)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-10.1
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-6.8
Profit Mgn-39.3%
ROE-24.2%
Rev Growth-6.5%
Beta0.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV140%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicmainland China (all commercial operations)
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our operations, and all of our commercial operations, are conducted in mainland China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -6.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.9
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -39.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
8.2
Cash-burning: FCF -16% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
7.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.1
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 8.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.26Resistance $21.33

Price Targets

$16
$29
A.Upside+69.6%
A.R:R8.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZLAB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.88. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZLAB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.97 (+69.7% upside). Prior stop was $15.88. Stop-loss: $15.88.

What are the risks of investing in ZLAB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China (all commercial operations); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is ZLAB overvalued or undervalued?

Zai Lab Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZLAB?

14 analysts cover ZLAB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Zai Lab Limited do?Zai Lab is a commercial-stage global biopharma with substantial operations in Greater China focused on oncology,...

Zai Lab is a commercial-stage global biopharma with substantial operations in Greater China focused on oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and infectious disease, with 7 commercially launched products including ZEJULA, VYVGART, NUZYRA, and AUGTYRO. Revenue is generated from in-licensed product sales across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau via NRDL inclusion and supplemental insurance coverage.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · AAPG (Ascentage Pharma Group Internat) · TLX (Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited)
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