Zillow Group carries deep analyst upside of 63% and exceptional free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown with RSI at 32 and two recent earnings misses signal that the near-term path to realizing that upside is uncertain.
Thesis pillars
- Death Cross Technical Breakdown↑Improving
- Residential Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. At $30.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of approximately 173 million homes to connect buyers, sellers, renters, and professionals. Revenue comes from real estate agent advertising (Residential, 66% of 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. At $30.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
Zillow Group attracted 9.6 billion site visits in 2025, peaking at 259 million unique users in July, anchoring its position as the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States. The company's living database covers approximately 173 million U.S. homes, and revenue split 66% Residential (agent advertising) and 24% Rentals (property manager advertising), with Zillow Home Loans available in 49 states and the District of Columbia by year-end 2025.
Zillow monetizes its audience primarily through the Zillow Preferred pay-when-you-close program for agent partners in Enhanced Markets and subscription-based market-priced advertising outside them. Under Zillow Preferred, agents pay a performance fee only when a lead converts to a closed transaction, creating variable revenue tied to housing transaction volumes and conversion rates. For property managers, the company offers listing subscriptions, a Pay-Per-Lease product for multifamily, and Zillow Rental Manager for longtail landlords (properties with fewer than 25 units). Rentals revenue grew 39% year-over-year in 2025, driven by 2.4 million average monthly active rental listings including 72,000 multifamily properties, a 44% increase versus year-end 2024. Zillow Home Loans originates mortgages and generally sells them on the secondary market. Many real estate partner relationships carry no long-term contracts, and partners can reduce or discontinue advertising with limited notice, making revenue sensitive to housing transaction volumes.
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Commission structure changes arising from the March 2024 NAR settlement have already altered how buyers and sellers engage agents, and the Department of Justice has signaled it may pursue additional antitrust scrutiny of the National Association of REALTORS. Because Residential advertising fees paid by real estate professionals depend on agent economics and marketing budgets, durable compression of commission rates could weigh on agent advertising spending across Zillow's partner base. The 10-K explicitly states that if agent commissions are meaningfully impacted, it could reduce the number of partners in the industry, threatening the Residential segment that accounted for 66% of total revenue in 2025.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From Zillow Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Zillow Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Zillow Group (Z) Expected to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Zillow Group Inc (Z) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Zillow Group Inc (Z) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Z|Zillow Group Inc|Price:33.750|Chg%:-0.250 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Zillow Group Inc (Z) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductResidential revenue66%10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWProductRentals revenue24%10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $30.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $28.62. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $35.82 (+16.4% upside). Prior stop was $28.62. Stop-loss: $28.62.
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.
Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 133.8 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover Z with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $41.
What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of...
Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of approximately 173 million homes to connect buyers, sellers, renters, and professionals. Revenue comes from real estate agent advertising (Residential, 66% of 2025 revenue) and rental marketplace services (Rentals, 24%), with mortgage origination through Zillow Home Loans available in 49 states. The company generated 9.6 billion site visits in 2025.