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York Space Systems Inc. (YSS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.15: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 22.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor providing spacecraft platforms, satellite software, and mission operations primarily to the Space Development Agency (SDA). As of December 31, 2025, YSS had ~$543M backlog for 107 spacecraft; the SDA accounted... Read more

$24.15+31.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#31 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-1.76%
Stop $22.69Target $31.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$36.33+50.4%9 analysts
$31.61our TP
$24.15price
$36.33mean
$55

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.15: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 22.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: SDA
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-31.5% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -2.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)51.1
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA-468.7
Profit Mgn-21.9%
ROE-9.1%
Rev Growth37.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C22.33bearish
Max Pain$13-48.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerSDA
    10-K Item 1A: 'the SDA accounted for substantially all of our revenue and backlog'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Janine A. Davidson (age 59, president of Metropolitan State University of Denver, former U.S. Navy undersecretary) appointed to Board as Class II director and Audit Committee member effective April 10, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-30Item 1.01LOW
    York Space Systems priced IPO at $34.00/share on Jan 28, 2026, entering underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo Securities for 18.5M shares plus 2.775M share overallotment option. IPO closed Jan 30, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -21.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
5.8
Moat
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -17% of revenueQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.6
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
7.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
8.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $23.39Resistance $44.54

Price Targets

$23
$32
A.Upside+30.9%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-31.5% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -2.0%)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YSS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.15: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 22.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $22.69. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YSS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.61 (+31.6% upside). Prior stop was $22.69. Stop-loss: $22.69.

What are the risks of investing in YSS?

Concentration risk — Customer: SDA; Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-31.5% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -2.0%).

Is YSS overvalued or undervalued?

York Space Systems Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 51.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YSS?

13 analysts cover YSS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $36.

What does York Space Systems Inc. do?York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor providing spacecraft platforms, satellite...

York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor providing spacecraft platforms, satellite software, and mission operations primarily to the Space Development Agency (SDA). As of December 31, 2025, YSS had ~$543M backlog for 107 spacecraft; the SDA accounted for substantially all revenue under firm-fixed-price production contracts.

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