Skip to main content
XPXP Inc.Sell6.1·$16.01+2.30%
Open full analysis

XP Inc. (XP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $16.01. Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private... Read more

$16.01+30.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#15 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.25%Payout9.91%sustainable
Stop $15.00Target $20.86(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$23.97+49.7%13 analysts
$20.86our TP
$16.01price
$23.97mean
$27

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $16.01. Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — XP Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 17, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 44%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.4
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.8%
ROE22.9%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta1.12
Dividend1.25%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C45.76bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$28+74.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.80Resistance $18.13

Price Targets

$15
$21
A.Upside+30.3%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$24

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-17 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $16.01. Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Prior stop was $15.00. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.86 (+30.2% upside). Prior stop was $15.00. Stop-loss: $15.00.

What are the risks of investing in XP?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

Is XP overvalued or undervalued?

XP Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XP?

19 analysts cover XP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $24.

What does XP Inc. do?XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product...

XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds, and life and travel insurance products; and other investment products comprising real estate funds, and equity and debt capital markets solutions, as well as wealth management services. The company offers brokerage and issuer services to institutional and corporate clients. It also manages mutual funds focused on stocks and macro strategies distributed to retail and to institutional clients; funds and managed portfolios for high-net-worth retail clients, and proprietary treasury funds; and passive mutual funds that track market indexes, and mutual and investment funds focused on fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative strategies. In addition, the company offers securities brokerage services for institutional and retail investors; interdealer brokerage services for institutional traders; and commercial and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits, as well as develops and sells financial education courses and events online and in person to retail clients. It offers its sell products and services through its omni-channel distribution network and online portals. XP Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.

Related stocks: FUTU (Futu Holdings Limited) · VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) · EVR (Evercore Inc.) · TIGR (UP Fintech Holding Limited) · BGC (BGC Group, Inc.)
Home Stocks XP

Latest news

Latest News

TipRanks33d ago
TipRanks33d ago
Marketscreener.com34d agoProduct
TechStock²28d ago
GolfWRX34d agoProduct
Sharewise.com32d ago
MSN32d ago
Yahoo Finance32d ago
MSN32d ago
AD HOC NEWS32d ago
GuruFocus33d ago
Moomoo28d ago
Marketscreener.com28d ago
Investing.com28d ago
Investing.com Nigeria28d ago
TipRanks28d ago
TradingView35d ago
MarketBeat35d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat36d ago
Benzinga7d agoEarnings
Loading more...