Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the WMG stock price target?

Take-profit $32.56 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.71.

Q: Is WMG overvalued or undervalued?

Warner Music Group Corp. trades at a P/E of 49.6 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about WMG?

24 analysts cover WMG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Communication Services · Entertainment

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign territories (57.0%).

$28.25+15.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#16 of 27 Entertainment

Stop $26.71Target $32.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1

Analyst target$36.18+28.1%17 analysts

$32.56our TP

$28.25price

$36.18mean

$23

$46

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign territories (57.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.6

P/E (Fwd)16.0

Mkt Cap$14.8B

EV/EBITDA12.6

Profit Mgn4.4%

ROE39.8%

Rev Growth10.4%

Beta1.28

Dividend2.69%

Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish

IV61%elevated

Max Pain$16-43.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomertop-3 digital accounts (Spotify, Google/YouTube, Apple)43%
10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned under our license agreements with our top three digital music accounts, Spotify, Google/YouTube and Apple, accounted for approximately 43% of our total revenue'
HIGHGeographicforeign territories57%
10-K Item 1A: 'Prior to intersegment eliminations, 57% of our revenues related to operations in foreign territories for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.815%1.02

Quality6.015%0.90

Growth2.515%0.38

Momentum2.110%0.21

Sentiment7.110%0.71

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.210%0.52

Technical Setup5.85%0.29

Risk Profile5.05%0.25

Catalyst4.85%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)5.01

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Macd

0.8

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.2

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

5.1

GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

46 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.77Resistance $30.74

Price Targets

$27

$33

A.Upside+15.3%

A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is WMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign territories (57.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $26.71. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the WMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.56 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.71. Stop-loss: $26.71.

What are the risks of investing in WMG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign territories (57.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is WMG overvalued or undervalued?

Warner Music Group Corp. trades at a P/E of 49.6 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMG?

24 analysts cover WMG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Warner Music Group Corp. do?Warner Music Group is one of the world major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music ($5.4B, 81% of FY2025...

Warner Music Group is one of the world major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music ($5.4B, 81% of FY2025 revenue) and Music Publishing ($1.3B, 19%) segments, home to Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra, Parlophone, and Warner Chappell Music with a catalog of over 2 million compositions. Revenue comes from streaming royalties, physical sales, licensing, and music publishing mechanicals. Access Industries holds approximately 72% economic interest.