Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Entertainment
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%).
Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025 revenue at $5.4B) and Music Publishing segments, operating labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra, and Parlophone, plus Warner Chappell Music... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Warner Music Group Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS WMG (Warner) shares fall 2.17% after Q1 2026 earnings per share trail analyst consensus estimates. - Regulatory Risk - N — Newser negative
- NEWS Two Stocks to Sell and One to Watch: Warner Music, Itron, and Tenet Healthcare Analysis - IndexBox — IndexBox negative
- NEWS Warner Music Group (WMG) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Warner Music Group (WMG) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductRecorded Music segment81%10-K Item 1: 'Our Recorded Music business... generated $5.408 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, representing 81% of total revenues.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop 3 digital accounts (Spotify, Google/YouTube, Apple)43%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned under our license agreements with our top three digital music accounts, Spotify, Google/YouTube and Apple, accounted for approximately 43% of our total revenue'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.27. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $34.31 (+20.3% upside). Prior stop was $27.27. Stop-loss: $27.27.
Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Warner Music Group Corp. trades at a P/E of 33.9 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover WMG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $38.
What does Warner Music Group Corp. do?Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025...
Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025 revenue at $5.4B) and Music Publishing segments, operating labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra, and Parlophone, plus Warner Chappell Music with 2M+ compositions. Over 57% of revenues are from international operations. Revenue comes from streaming royalties, digital distribution, physical sales, and performance rights.