Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
WLFC · Why this verdict
Why Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential. Key risks | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower. | ||
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand. | ||
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint. | ||
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative. | ||
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential.
Tripped↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding.
CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower.
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x.
CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand.
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum.
CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint.
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%.
CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 614% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 75 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.57 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 68%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $12,259,405 (1.225% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.2 |
| days to cover | 2.5 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 20%
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- INSIDER:1.23%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.30
Upside
+43.2%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 9.3 (strongest), but INSIDER:1.23%=EXTREME also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Sentiment at 7.9, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.30 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Attractive Multiples
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has fully closed.
- P2Revenue Earnings Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the beat pattern.
- P4Upside Exhaustion Target ReachedTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $177, more than 7% below the current $190.83, triggering the defined stop-loss level.