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VMIValmont Industries, Inc.Sell5.4·$483.44+1.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Valmont Industries has a perfect Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target with a put-to-call ratio of 4.56, heavy steel commodity exposure of 50% of inputs, and recent leadership changes signaling potential operational uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Steel Commodity Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • Perfect Piotroski Financial HealthStable
  • Solid Recent Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $483.44: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%).

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and Valley-brand center-pivot irrigation equipment across two segments, with 10,791 employees and a $1.65 billion backlog at December 27, 2025. Revenue flows from direct... Read more

$483.44+9.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 18 Conglomerates
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.53%
IncomeYield0.64%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout11.33%sustainable
Stop $459.62Target $530.82(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$624.50+29.2%4 analysts
$530.82our TP
$483.44price
$624.50mean
$678

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $483.44: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn11.7%
ROE29.8%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.34
Dividend0.64%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.84bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. electric utility industry
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our sales ... In fiscal 2025, our sales to the U.S. electric utility industry were approximately $1.5 billion'
  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational sales28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 28% of our fiscal 2025 net sales occurring outside the U.S.'
  • HIGHCommoditysteel50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the cost of steel has accounted for approximately 50% of net sales on average'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John Schwietz appointed EVP, CFO and Corporate Secretary effective April 8, 2026, succeeding Thomas Liguori. Schwietz joined Valmont in 2009 and most recently served as President – International Agriculture.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation terms for newly appointed CFO John Schwietz disclosed per Human Resources Committee approval; details set forth in Exhibit 99.1. No new departure or appointment disclosed.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    Separation and release agreement entered May 26, 2026 with former CFO Thomas Liguori. Liguori to provide consulting until December 26, 2026 under confidentiality and restrictive covenants; compensation per agreement terms.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $461.97Resistance $508.34

Price Targets

$460
$531
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts11
Consensus4.3/5
Avg Target$625

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $483.44: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $459.62. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $530.82 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $459.62. Stop-loss: $459.62.

What are the risks of investing in VMI?

Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is VMI overvalued or undervalued?

Valmont Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMI?

11 analysts cover VMI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $625.

What does Valmont Industries, Inc. do?Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and...

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and Valley-brand center-pivot irrigation equipment across two segments, with 10,791 employees and a $1.65 billion backlog at December 27, 2025. Revenue flows from direct sales and commissioned agents in Infrastructure, and through approximately 650 dealer locations globally in Agriculture.

Related stocks: PAM (Pampa Energia S.A.) · SEB (Seaboard Corporation) · HON (Honeywell International Inc.) · GHC (Graham Holdings Company) · MMM (3M Company)
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