Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.13
VMI · Why this verdict
Why Valmont Industries (VMI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Valmont Industries has a perfect Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target with a put-to-call ratio of 4.56, heavy steel commodity exposure of 50% of inputs, and recent leadership changes signaling potential operational uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Steel accounts for 50% of input costs, creating significant exposure to commodity price cycles that can compress margins without any change in the underlying business; this concentration risk has been specifically flagged in the company's annual risk disclosures. Bear case | Gross margin or operating margin does not decline by more than 3 percentage points in any reported quarter due to steel cost inflation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIndustrial companies with heavy steel exposure often have pricing pass-through mechanisms; Valmont may be able to pass steel cost increases through to customers in infrastructure and utility markets. | ||
A Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates that Valmont's balance sheet health, profitability trends, and operational efficiency are simultaneously at their strongest across all measured dimensions. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score stays at 8 or above through the next 2 annual reporting periods, maintaining near-perfect financial health. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPerfect Piotroski scores often lag turning points; the score can remain elevated for several quarters after business conditions have begun to deteriorate in cyclical industrial companies. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including a 16% beat in April 2026 and an 8% beat in October 2025, indicating the management team generally delivers results at or above consensus expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a minor miss of minus 1%, and with 50% steel input exposure, any commodity cost spike could quickly erode the beat pattern. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 4.56 — among the highest in the market — combined with the stock trading above its analyst consensus price target with negative implied upside, suggests that sophisticated market participants are hedging against downside at current levels. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive positioning. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios often represent concentrated institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and historically precede sharper recoveries. | ||
Steel accounts for 50% of input costs, creating significant exposure to commodity price cycles that can compress margins without any change in the underlying business; this concentration risk has been specifically flagged in the company's annual risk disclosures.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Gross margin or operating margin does not decline by more than 3 percentage points in any reported quarter due to steel cost inflation.
CounterIndustrial companies with heavy steel exposure often have pricing pass-through mechanisms; Valmont may be able to pass steel cost increases through to customers in infrastructure and utility markets.
A Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates that Valmont's balance sheet health, profitability trends, and operational efficiency are simultaneously at their strongest across all measured dimensions.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score stays at 8 or above through the next 2 annual reporting periods, maintaining near-perfect financial health.
CounterPerfect Piotroski scores often lag turning points; the score can remain elevated for several quarters after business conditions have begun to deteriorate in cyclical industrial companies.
Three of the four most recent quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including a 16% beat in April 2026 and an 8% beat in October 2025, indicating the management team generally delivers results at or above consensus expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a minor miss of minus 1%, and with 50% steel input exposure, any commodity cost spike could quickly erode the beat pattern.
A put-to-call ratio of 4.56 — among the highest in the market — combined with the stock trading above its analyst consensus price target with negative implied upside, suggests that sophisticated market participants are hedging against downside at current levels.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive positioning.
CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios often represent concentrated institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and historically precede sharper recoveries.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9 |
| ROA | 7.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 2.4 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $329,381 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.98
Upside
+16.3%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 1.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Growth at 4.1, and Catalyst at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 7 in any annual reporting period.
- P2Solid Recent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Steel Commodity Concentration Risk
Trip ifOperating margin declines by more than 4 percentage points year-over-year in any reported quarter.
- P4Elevated Put Call Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0, indicating further escalation of defensive options positioning above the current 4.56.