ULCC screens as statistically cheap and has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, but a quality-floor breach, a failed momentum gate, negative calculated asymmetry, and bearish insider selling alongside elevated options skew have pushed the engine to recommend exiting the position.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Earnings Pe→Stable
- Quality Floor Breach Piotroski→Stable
- Overbought Momentum Gate Failure→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Below-average business quality.
Frontier Group Holdings is the parent of Frontier Airlines, an ultra low-cost carrier operating a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft across U.S. domestic routes and select international destinations in the Americas. The company earns revenue from low base fares plus... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
About Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
Frontier Group Holdings operated a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft as of December 31, 2025, serving roughly 100 airports across the United States and international destinations in the Americas. Total revenue per passenger reached $112.17 in 2025, split between $44.60 in fare revenue and $67.57 in ancillary revenue from bags, seat selection, and membership programs. The company has a firm commitment with Airbus for 168 additional A320neo family aircraft through 2031.
Frontier earns revenue through low base fares supplemented by unbundled ancillary services — baggage, advance seat selection, extended-legroom seating, and priority boarding — plus subscription products like Discount Den and the GoWild! All-You-Can-Fly Pass, and its FRONTIER Miles co-branded credit card program. Approximately 70% of tickets are sold directly through the company's website, mobile app, and contact centers, with the remaining roughly 30% booked through travel agencies and online travel agencies such as Priceline and Expedia. Aircraft fuel is one of the company's largest operating expenses, representing 24% of total operating costs in 2025, down from 28% in 2024, and the company held no outstanding fuel hedges as of year-end. Frontier's principal competitors include the U.S. 'Big Four' network carriers as well as fellow ultra-low-cost carriers such as Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Travel Company.
Show full overview
Frontier's entire operating fleet is a single aircraft family from one manufacturer, Airbus, a structural choice that lowers costs through crew and maintenance commonality but leaves the airline's growth plan tied to one supplier's production and delivery schedule; the 10-K notes Airbus has experienced delivery delays that may persist. The company also carried no fuel hedges as of December 31, 2025, leaving its second-largest cost line fully exposed to spot jet fuel prices even as fuel already consumed 24% of operating costs in 2025. Combined with a leisure-heavy, price-sensitive customer base, these structural choices could concentrate Frontier's earnings volatility in aircraft delivery timing and unhedged commodity price swings rather than in any single customer or geographic market.
See also: Industrials · Airlines
From Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Frontier Group Holdings, Raises Price Target to $7 — benzinga Jul 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Higher Airfares Are Sticking After Spring Price Hikes, Analyst Says — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Frontier Airlines Renews Credit Card Collaboration With Barclays US Consumer Bank — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-08T22:53:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierAirbus10-K Item 1: 'We fly only Airbus A320 family aircraft, which provides us significant operational and cost advantages compared to airlines that operate multiple fleet types.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-12Item 5.02LOWDirector Andrew Broderick resigned from the Board effective June 15, 2026, citing no disagreement with the company; the Board appointed Barron Steele as a Class II director the same day to fill the resulting vacancy.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Volatile — 7.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $6.66. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.23 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $6.66. Stop-loss: $6.66.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Airbus; Target reached (-25.1% upside); Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0).
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ULCC with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $6.
What does Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. do?Frontier Group Holdings is the parent of Frontier Airlines, an ultra low-cost carrier operating a fleet of 176 Airbus...
Frontier Group Holdings is the parent of Frontier Airlines, an ultra low-cost carrier operating a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft across U.S. domestic routes and select international destinations in the Americas. The company earns revenue from low base fares plus ancillary services such as baggage, seat selection, and Discount Den and GoWild! membership programs, generating total revenue per passenger of $112.17 in 2025.