SkyWest has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times, and offers a 41% margin of safety — but heavy reliance on United and Delta for revenue creates a structural concentration risk that constrains upside.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
- Deep Value At 7x Earnings↓Deteriorating
- Customer Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Airlines
Wait for pullback to $91.60. BUY gates pass at $95.27, but concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $91.60 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines, conducting approximately 2,260 daily departures under United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle, and Alaska Airlines code-share agreements. Revenue is earned... Read more
Wait for pullback to $91.60. BUY gates pass at $95.27, but concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $91.60 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About SkyWest, Inc.
About SkyWest, Inc.
SkyWest, Inc. completed 863,513 departures and 1,481,723 block hours in fiscal 2025 — up from 766,742 departures in 2024 as captain availability normalized after elevated attrition in 2022 and 2023. The company deployed 487 aircraft in scheduled service under United, Delta, American, and Alaska code-share agreements as of December 31, 2025, operating at hubs including Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle. SkyWest employed 15,775 people, with 89.6% represented by in-house labor associations.
Approximately 84% of SkyWest's flying agreements revenue in 2025 came from capacity purchase agreements under which United, Delta, American, and Alaska pay fixed rates per departure, flight hour, and block hour while bearing fuel price risk and controlling scheduling, ticketing, and seat inventories. The remaining ~16% derived from prorate agreements and SWC charter operations, where SkyWest retained scheduling control and bore fuel costs directly. United accounted for 216 of the 487 aircraft in scheduled service, Delta for 137, American for 92, and Alaska for 42, with 353 of the 487 total aircraft flying under United or Delta agreements. SkyWest Leasing contributed revenue by financing E175 aircraft and leasing 40 CRJ700s and 5 CRJ900s to third parties. SWC, the on-demand charter subsidiary operating since 2023, received DOT commuter air carrier authorization in September 2025. Eight new E175s for United and one for Alaska are scheduled for delivery in 2026, with 16 more for Delta in 2027 and 2028.
Show full overview
The filing's most specific risk quantification concerns United and Delta: SkyWest disclosed that 353 of its 487 scheduled-service aircraft operated under United or Delta agreements as of December 31, 2025, and warned that termination of either relationship would likely have a material adverse effect on financial condition, operating revenues, and net income without an immediate replacement revenue source. Scope limitations embedded in each major airline's own labor agreements cap the seat count and aircraft type eligible for code-share use, constraining SkyWest's ability to grow outside the four-partner system or reallocate aircraft to alternative arrangements if one agreement were terminated.
See also: Industrials · Airlines
From SkyWest, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — SkyWest, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Does SkyWest's Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Does SkyWest's Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity? - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Does SkyWest's Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance Singapore — Yahoo Finance Singapore positive
- NEWS Does SkyWest's Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity? - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research positive
- NEWS Ruffer LLP Purchases New Shares in SkyWest, Inc. $SKYW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerUnited and Delta10-K Item 1A: '353 out of our total 487 aircraft in scheduled service were operating under a capacity purchase agreement or a prorate agreement with either United or Delta'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $91.60. BUY gates pass at $95.27, but concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $91.60 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $109.04 (+14.5%), stop $87.46 (−8.9%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $109.04 (+14.5% upside). Target $109.04 (+14.5%), stop $87.46 (−8.9%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $87.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
SkyWest, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover SKYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $125.
What does SkyWest, Inc. do?SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines,...
SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines, conducting approximately 2,260 daily departures under United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle, and Alaska Airlines code-share agreements. Revenue is earned primarily under fixed-fee capacity purchase agreements (approximately 84% of flying agreements revenue in 2025), covering a 487-aircraft in-service fleet with partners bearing fuel price risk.