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VCELVericel CorporationHold6.1·$37.77+2.00%
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Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.8%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.07% of cap).

Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn skin replacement), and NexoBrid (eschar removal for burn patients), targeting orthopedic surgeons and burn care specialists. Revenue comes from specialty... Read more

$37.77+27.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#22 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.24%
Stop $35.13Target $48.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$55.43+46.8%7 analysts
$48.22our TP
$37.77price
$55.43mean
$70

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.8%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.07% of cap). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.8%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.07% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)86.1
P/E (Fwd)43.5
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA66.0
Profit Mgn7.3%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth30.1%
Beta1.13
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$35-7.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierMatricel
    10-K Item 1: 'The Matricel Supply Agreement provides that Matricel will supply the ACI-Maix membranes exclusively to us during the term of the agreement'
  • MEDIUMSupplierMediWound
    10-K Item 1A: 'The commercial success of NexoBrid in the U.S. is dependent, in part, on MediWound’s ability to timely manufacture and supply sufficient quantities of NexoBrid to meet customer demand'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
6.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
5.5
Quality Rank
6.8
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.6>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.01Resistance $38.17

Price Targets

$35
$48
A.Upside+27.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$55

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VCEL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.8%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.07% of cap). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.22 (+27.7%), stop $35.13 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VCEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.22 (+27.7% upside). Target $48.22 (+27.7%), stop $35.13 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $35.13.

What are the risks of investing in VCEL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.8%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.07% of cap).

Is VCEL overvalued or undervalued?

Vericel Corporation trades at a P/E of 86.1 (forward 43.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VCEL?

14 analysts cover VCEL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Vericel Corporation do?Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn...

Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn skin replacement), and NexoBrid (eschar removal for burn patients), targeting orthopedic surgeons and burn care specialists. Revenue comes from specialty pharmacy sales (MACI) and hospital sales (Epicel/NexoBrid); net income was $16.5M in 2025. Matricel GmbH is the sole collagen membrane supplier for MACI manufacturing.

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