Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.80: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Upstart is an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union lending partners for personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs, with 91% of loans fully automated in 2025. Revenue consists primarily of platform and referral fees from lending partners and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.80: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop three lending partners61%10-K Item 1: 'our top three lending partners collectively originated 83% of the loans facilitated through our marketplace and revenue from fees received from these lending partners accounted for 61% of our total revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUMDave Girouard transitioning to Executive Chairman; Paul Gu (Co-founder, CTO) appointed CEO effective May 1, 2026. Sanjay Datta appointed President and Chief Capital Officer effective immediately. Clean internal succession; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 6.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.80: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.42. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.54 (+20.9% upside). Prior stop was $30.42. Stop-loss: $30.42.
Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).
Upstart Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 70.2 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover UPST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Upstart Holdings, Inc. do?Upstart is an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union lending partners for personal...
Upstart is an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union lending partners for personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs, with 91% of loans fully automated in 2025. Revenue consists primarily of platform and referral fees from lending partners and loan servicing fees. The top 3 lending partners originated 83% of marketplace loans and accounted for 61% of total revenue in 2025.