Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
ULCC · Why this verdict
Why Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 38% year over year and Frontier is the industry growth leader, with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67, and fast capacity growth in airlines often comes with weaker unit economics. | ||
Frontier has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 4 days. Catalyst breakdown | EPS beats continue in the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats from near-zero profit bases are fragile, and the earnings event is a binary risk for a stock with 98% implied volatility. | ||
Quality is far below the minimum bar at 1.1 out of 10, with free cash flow at -2% of revenue, no moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score improves to 5 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterAirlines are structurally low-margin and cyclical, and weak balance-sheet scores can persist through any single upcycle. | ||
The $5.51 analyst target is 11.5% above the $4.94 price, but the stop is 15.0% below, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.8. Targets | Price rises toward the analyst target, lifting reward-to-risk above 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDownside exceeds upside in this setup, and a 41% drawdown from the 52-week high shows persistent selling. | ||
Short interest is 40%, insiders sold $2.8M (0.245% of market cap), and the company has a high-severity supplier concentration in Airbus. Key risks | Short interest falls below 25% and insider selling stops. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze, and institutions are accumulating, which could reverse the bearish positioning. | ||
Revenue is growing 38% year over year and Frontier is the industry growth leader, with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67, and fast capacity growth in airlines often comes with weaker unit economics.
Frontier has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 4 days.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in the next 4 quarters.
CounterBeats from near-zero profit bases are fragile, and the earnings event is a binary risk for a stock with 98% implied volatility.
Quality is far below the minimum bar at 1.1 out of 10, with free cash flow at -2% of revenue, no moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score improves to 5 or higher.
CounterAirlines are structurally low-margin and cyclical, and weak balance-sheet scores can persist through any single upcycle.
The $5.51 analyst target is 11.5% above the $4.94 price, but the stop is 15.0% below, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.8.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the analyst target, lifting reward-to-risk above 1.5.
CounterDownside exceeds upside in this setup, and a 41% drawdown from the 52-week high shows persistent selling.
Short interest is 40%, insiders sold $2.8M (0.245% of market cap), and the company has a high-severity supplier concentration in Airbus.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 25% and insider selling stops.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze, and institutions are accumulating, which could reverse the bearish positioning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,786,459 (0.196% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (14.3%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
0.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 1.2 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 42%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 29.50
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.71
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.65>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.71.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.4, and Catalyst at 8.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 0.3, Quality at 1.1, and Technical at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 38%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the next 2 quarters.
- P3Very Weak Quality Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -5% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Upside Versus Risk
Trip ifPrice falls more than 7% to the $4.59 stop level.
- P5High Short Interest And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 50% from the current 40%.