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UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Sell6.1·$120.43+6.94%
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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.43 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus.

United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM), transporting passengers and cargo across North America and internationally across six continents. Aircraft fuel represented 21% of total 2025 operating expenses;... Read more

$120.43+2.9% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.39%
Stop $107.43Target $118.87(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$132.08+9.7%24 analysts
$118.87our TP
$120.43price
$132.08mean
$95
$182

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.43 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$37.5B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn6.1%
ROE25.7%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta1.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierBoeing and Airbus
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company currently sources substantially all of its aircraft and many related aircraft parts from The Boeing Company ("Boeing") or Airbus S.A.S. ("Airbus").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.34Resistance $117.96

Price Targets

$107
$119
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.43 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $107.43. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.87 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $107.43. Stop-loss: $107.43.

What are the risks of investing in UAL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Boeing and Airbus; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away).

Is UAL overvalued or undervalued?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UAL?

30 analysts cover UAL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.

What does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. do?United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM),...

United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke network from 8 major airports (ORD, DEN, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, GUM), transporting passengers and cargo across North America and internationally across six continents. Aircraft fuel represented 21% of total 2025 operating expenses; substantially all aircraft and engines are sourced from Boeing and Airbus.

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