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TRVITrevi Therapeutics, Inc.Sell5.7·$13.52
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Trevi Therapeutics is a pre-commercial biotechnology company with 63% analyst-implied upside to $20.79 and strong technical momentum in a breakout setup, but its cash-burning profile, below-quality-floor metrics, and high implied volatility of 188% reflect the binary risk inherent in a clinical-stage biotech with no approved products.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burning Quality Concern→Stable
  • High Implied Volatility Binary Risk↑Improving
  • Analyst Upside Clinical Pipeline→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 17, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (TRVI) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Trevi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing Haduvio, an oral extended-release formulation of nalbuphine and its sole product candidate, to treat chronic cough in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), non-IPF interstitial lung disease,... Read more

$13.52+81.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#83 of 241 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.73%
Stop $12.57Analyst target $24.52(−13% haircut)A.R:R 6.0:1
Analyst consensus$28.18+108.4%11 analysts
$24.52Analyst target
$13.52price
$28.18mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.

About Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.

Trevi Therapeutics' entire clinical and commercial strategy rests on Haduvio, an oral extended-release nalbuphine formulation and the company's sole product candidate, which met its primary endpoint in the Phase 2b CORAL trial for IPF-related chronic cough in June 2025, reducing 24-hour cough frequency by up to 60.2% versus a 16.9% placebo reduction in a trial conducted at sites across ten countries. The company also reported positive Phase 2a RIVER trial results in March 2025 for refractory chronic cough, a 67% cough-frequency reduction versus 10% for placebo, and plans to initiate two parallel Phase 3 trials for IPF-related cough in the second quarter and second half of 2026.

Trevi has no approved products and no product revenue, funding Haduvio's development through equity and debt financings while retaining worldwide commercialization rights rather than licensing them to a partner. The company built its clinical program on nalbuphine's decades-long safety record as an approved injectable pain treatment, marketed generically as Nubain, and on eight prior Haduvio trials, including two Phase 2 pain studies, licensed from Keenova Therapeutics, the successor to original developer Penwest Pharmaceuticals following mergers into Endo and then Mallinckrodt. Under that license, Trevi owes Keenova milestone payments upon completion of the first Phase 3 trial and U.S. marketing approval of a licensed product, plus royalties on any future net product sales. Manufacturing for clinical and, if approved, commercial supply depends on third-party contract manufacturers rather than in-house facilities.

Show full overview

Because Haduvio is Trevi's only product candidate, the entire company's near-term value hinges on results from two Phase 3 trials it plans to start in the second quarter and second half of 2026 — a 300-patient, 52-week study and a smaller 130-patient, 12-week study, both still subject to final review of the protocols by the FDA despite an End-of-Phase 2 meeting alignment. A failure or delay in either trial would leave the company without a second pipeline asset to fall back on, since Trevi states it is currently not developing any other product candidates beyond Haduvio's three chronic-cough indications.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:52Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: Haduvio
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-23.4
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA-27.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-19.7%
Rev Growth—
Beta0.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV73%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineHaduvio
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on the successful development and commercialization of Haduvio, our sole product candidate.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.6
52w Position
3.4
Support Resistance
3.9
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 6.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.70Resistance $14.66

Price Targets

$13
$25
A.Upside+81.3%
A.R:R6.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRVI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.57. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRVI stock price target?

Analyst target: $24.52 (+81.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.57. Stop-loss: $12.57.

What are the risks of investing in TRVI?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: Haduvio; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is TRVI overvalued or undervalued?

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRVI?

18 analysts cover TRVI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. do?Trevi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing Haduvio, an oral extended-release...

Trevi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing Haduvio, an oral extended-release formulation of nalbuphine and its sole product candidate, to treat chronic cough in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), non-IPF interstitial lung disease, and refractory chronic cough. Haduvio met its primary endpoint in the Phase 2b CORAL trial for IPF-related cough in June 2025 (up to 60.2% cough-frequency reduction versus 16.9% for placebo) and in the Phase 2a RIVER trial for refractory chronic cough in March 2025 (67% reduction versus 10% for placebo), with two Phase

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