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Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet... Read more

$24.46+46.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#26 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $23.18Target $35.91(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$42.25+72.7%4 analysts
$35.91our TP
$24.46price
$42.25mean
$59

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.3
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA25.6
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE5.5%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta1.66
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$65+165.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Roa
0.7
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
0.9
Roe
1.8
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -120% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Value Rank
4.5
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.90Resistance $29.45

Price Targets

$23
$36
A.Upside+46.8%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRUP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.18. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRUP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.91 (+46.5% upside). Prior stop was $23.18. Stop-loss: $23.18.

What are the risks of investing in TRUP?

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is TRUP overvalued or undervalued?

Trupanion, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.3 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRUP?

12 analysts cover TRUP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Trupanion, Inc. do?Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in...

Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet owners and veterinarians. The company was formerly known as Vetinsurance International, Inc. changed its name to Trupanion, Inc. in 2013. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

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