Heritage Insurance Holdings pairs a cheap valuation and strong return on equity with a deep-value sizing bonus, but shares are overbought and have already reached their near-term resistance target, so the setup favors waiting for a pullback rather than adding at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Cheap Valuation→Stable
- Deep Value Margin Of Safety Bonus—
- Beat Streak With Recent Miss→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 12, 2026
Heritage Insurance Holdings, In (HRTG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $33.38. Price sits above the model's entry target of $33.38; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Heritage Insurance Holdings is a super-regional property and casualty insurer that writes personal and commercial residential insurance through three subsidiaries - Heritage P&C, Narragansett Bay Insurance Company, and Zephyr Insurance - across fourteen eastern and Gulf states,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $33.38. Price sits above the model's entry target of $33.38; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-4.5% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Heritage Insurance Holdings, In
About Heritage Insurance Holdings, In
Heritage Insurance Holdings wrote $1.4 billion in gross premiums during 2025 across 357,275 personal and commercial residential policies, concentrated in coastal states from the Northeast through the Gulf plus Hawaii, where its Zephyr subsidiary underwrites wind-only coverage. The company operates through three licensed insurers - Heritage P&C, Narragansett Bay Insurance Company, and Zephyr - as admitted carriers in fourteen states and on an excess and surplus lines basis in California, Florida, Hawaii, and South Carolina.
Heritage distributes its personal and commercial residential products entirely through independent agents rather than a captive sales force: roughly 25% of its southeastern voluntary personal lines policies flow through agents affiliated with eight large agency networks, NBIC's three largest independent agency relationships represent approximately 15% of annualized premiums in the Northeast, and about 52% of Zephyr's Hawaii premium is written by agents tied to three large multi-producer agencies. To limit catastrophe exposure, Heritage cedes a large share of its risk through excess of loss, quota share, and facultative reinsurance, including participation at 90% in the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF) and catastrophe bonds issued through its Citrus Re special-purpose vehicle; for the contract period ending May 31, 2026, its subsidiaries purchased $3.75 billion of aggregate catastrophe reinsurance limit. No single private-market reinsurer represents more than 10% of that purchased limit.
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Heritage's 10-K discloses that nearly all of its in-force premium relates to business written in coastal states exposed to hurricanes, tropical storms, and winter storms, a structural concentration the company manages primarily through reinsurance rather than geographic diversification. That reinsurance dependency is not risk-free: the FHCF coverage that comprises a significant portion of Heritage P&C's Florida reinsurance program could fall short in a severe catastrophe year, since the fund's ability to pay claims in full depends on its own capacity to issue bonds, and the company's 2017 Hurricane Irma reinsurance agreement with the FHCF was already commuted in 2023 with any future adverse loss re-estimation retained entirely by Heritage.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Heritage Insurance Holdings, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Heritage Insurance Holdings, In
Latest news
- NEWS Heritage Insurance (HRTG) Projected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Heritage Insurance (NYSE:HRTG) Releases Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.81 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Heritage Insurance (HRTG) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Heritage Insurance: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Heritage HRTG Reports $51.1 Million Third-Quarter Net Income - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $33.38. Price sits above the model's entry target of $33.38; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-4.5% upside). Wait for pullback. Analyst target $33.15 reached (−4.5%), stop $31.87 (−9.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $33.15 reached (−4.5% from $34.73); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $33.15 reached (−4.5%), stop $31.87 (−9.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $31.87.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, In trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover HRTG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $39.
What does Heritage Insurance Holdings, In do?Heritage Insurance Holdings is a super-regional property and casualty insurer that writes personal and commercial...
Heritage Insurance Holdings is a super-regional property and casualty insurer that writes personal and commercial residential insurance through three subsidiaries - Heritage P&C, Narragansett Bay Insurance Company, and Zephyr Insurance - across fourteen eastern and Gulf states, Hawaii, and excess and surplus lines markets. The company wrote $1.4 billion in gross premiums and held 357,275 policies in force as of December 31, 2025, ceding significant catastrophe risk to reinsurers including the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.