TPG RE Finance Trust is a mortgage REIT trading at an attractive 5.2x price-to-operating-cash-flow with 32% upside to the analyst target, but shrinking revenue, a confirmed downtrend and earnings in 2 days argue for patience.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Cash Flow Valuation→Stable
- Analyst Target Upside→Stable
- Declining Revenue Single Product↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.49: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.49: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TRTX or VTMX: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Will Earnings Show TPG RE Finance Trust (NYSE:TRTX) Can Fund a 16.38% Yield on USD 0.23 of Distributable Profit? - kalki — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS Ahead of Imminent Results, What Could the Market Be Overlooking in Rithm Capital, Whirlpool, Orchid Island Capital, East — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS TRTX vs. VTMX: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Is TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Stock Undervalued Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductfirst mortgage loans100%10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, 99.7% of our loan commitments were floating rate, of which 100.0% were first mortgage loans.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.49: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $6.05. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $8.30 (+27.9% upside). Prior stop was $6.05. Stop-loss: $6.05.
Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover TRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.
What does TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. do?TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first...
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025. As of that date, the company held 50 loans for investment totaling $4.3 billion in commitments and a $4.1 billion unpaid principal balance, entirely first mortgage loans, with a weighted average all-in yield of 7.1% and a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 65.7%.