Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Railroads
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico.
Trinity Industries is a North American railcar products and services company with Railcar Leasing and Services Group (operating leases and fleet management through TILC and TRIP Holdings) and Rail Products Group (manufacturing under TrinityRail). Revenue comes from lease income,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicMexico10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our railcars are manufactured in Mexico. Our Mexico operations and other operations outside of the U.S. are subject to the risks associated with cross-border business transactions'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'Certain materials for our products are currently available from a limited number of suppliers and, as a result, we may have limited control over pricing, availability, and delivery schedules'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP Gregory B. Mitchell (Leasing and Services) notified Trinity of his intention to retire effective October 15, 2026, stepping down from EVP role February 16, 2026. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $33.18. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $35.13 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $33.18. Stop-loss: $33.18.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away).
Trinity Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover TRN with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Trinity Industries, Inc. do?Trinity Industries is a North American railcar products and services company with Railcar Leasing and Services Group...
Trinity Industries is a North American railcar products and services company with Railcar Leasing and Services Group (operating leases and fleet management through TILC and TRIP Holdings) and Rail Products Group (manufacturing under TrinityRail). Revenue comes from lease income, equipment sales, and maintenance/digital logistics services; the majority of railcars are manufactured in Mexico.