Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.20
- ▸Attractively valued
TRN · Why this verdict
Why Trinity Industries (TRN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -179% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -16%
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 0.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.72
- ▸Above max pain $24
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 379.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.45
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.36>1.3, MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Technical at 6.4, and Sentiment at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.