Tejon Ranch is a small land-holding company with explosive 72% revenue growth and a 35.6% gap to the analyst target, but weak business quality (3.3/10), negative cash conversion and a 149.5x forward P/E make the growth hard to trust.
Thesis pillars
- Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
- Weak Earnings Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
- Expensive Valuation Forward Pe→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026
Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.59: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend.
We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.59: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Tejon Ranch Co
Latest news
- NEWS Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Tejon Breaks Ground on $725 Million Expansion — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tejon Ranch Reports Q2 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Top 3 Real Estate Stocks That May Rocket Higher This Quarter — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tejon Ranch Q2 EPS $0.10 Beats $0.02 Estimate, Sales $14.259M Beat $8.641M Estimate — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.59: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.83. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $22.31 (+34.5% upside). Prior stop was $15.83. Stop-loss: $15.83.
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Tejon Ranch Co trades at a P/E of 75.4 (forward 150.8). TrendMatrix value score: 1.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does Tejon Ranch Co do?We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20...
We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's Central Valley. TRCC is the primary driver of our revenue and earnings.