Value
1.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 150.8x
- ▸Expensive valuation
TRC · Why this verdict
Why Tejon Ranch (TRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tejon Ranch is a small land-holding company with explosive 72% revenue growth and a 35.6% gap to the analyst target, but weak business quality (3.3/10), negative cash conversion and a 149.5x forward P/E make the growth hard to trust.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 72% year over year, making Tejon Ranch the industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months as the recent expansion carries through. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is measured on a tiny, lumpy base with low confidence (only one growth input), so a single land sale can inflate the rate and then reverse. | ||
Business quality is below the minimum bar at 3.3 out of 10, with free cash flow at -166% of net income. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income and the quality score recovers above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReal-estate developers spend cash ahead of land sales, so negative cash conversion can be timing rather than deterioration. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 149.5x, an expensive valuation that leaves little room for earnings disappointment. Valuation breakdown | Earnings grow fast enough that forward P/E compresses below 80x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings are near zero on a lumpy base, so a high P/E multiple says little; asset value may justify the price. | ||
The analyst target of $22.31 sits 35.6% above the $16.45 price, with earnings due in 12 days after a beat streak of 3 beats and 1 in-line result. Targets | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings continue to beat estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin and the targets may be stale; the beats came from tiny EPS bases like $0.01 versus a -$0.02 estimate. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising and volume shows accumulation, indicating a pullback within an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average while on-balance volume keeps rising over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum could be a bounce in a low-quality name, and the stock has not yet recovered the 200-day average. | ||
Revenue is growing 72% year over year, making Tejon Ranch the industry growth leader among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months as the recent expansion carries through.
CounterGrowth is measured on a tiny, lumpy base with low confidence (only one growth input), so a single land sale can inflate the rate and then reverse.
Business quality is below the minimum bar at 3.3 out of 10, with free cash flow at -166% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income and the quality score recovers above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterReal-estate developers spend cash ahead of land sales, so negative cash conversion can be timing rather than deterioration.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 149.5x, an expensive valuation that leaves little room for earnings disappointment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings grow fast enough that forward P/E compresses below 80x over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings are near zero on a lumpy base, so a high P/E multiple says little; asset value may justify the price.
The analyst target of $22.31 sits 35.6% above the $16.45 price, with earnings due in 12 days after a beat streak of 3 beats and 1 in-line result.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings continue to beat estimates.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin and the targets may be stale; the beats came from tiny EPS bases like $0.01 versus a -$0.02 estimate.
The stock is below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising and volume shows accumulation, indicating a pullback within an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average while on-balance volume keeps rising over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum could be a bounce in a low-quality name, and the stock has not yet recovered the 200-day average.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -166% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 72% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
8.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
6.90
Upside
+34.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 6.90.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Value at 1.8, Technical at 3.2, and Quality at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY in the next reported quarter from the current 72%.
- P2Weak Earnings Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 and free cash flow stays below 0% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Expensive Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 150x for 2 consecutive quarters without earnings growth.
- P4Analyst Target Upside Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the upcoming earnings report and price falls more than 5% to $15.67.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifPrice closes below $15.67 stop level, more than 4.7% below the current $16.45.