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TPGTPG Inc.Sell5.0·$41.63+1.03%
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TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $41.63: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B), Growth ($32B), Impact ($31B), Credit ($93B), Real Estate ($38B), and Market Solutions ($17B). Revenue is earned through management fees based on committed or... Read more

$41.63+16.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#89 of 111 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.44%Payout895.65%at-risk
Stop $40.15Target $50.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$56.00+34.5%15 analysts
$50.40our TP
$41.63price
$56.00mean
$75

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $41.63: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)179.1
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$15.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth-56.8%
Beta1.43
Dividend5.44%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV77%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Admiral William H. McRaven appointed independent director effective May 1, 2026, as part of TPG's long-term governance transition to majority-independent board. He will serve on Compensation and Conflicts Committees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.1
Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
3.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.9
52w Position
2.6
Support Resistance
2.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.25Resistance $44.75

Price Targets

$40
$50
A.Upside+21.1%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$56

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $41.63: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $40.15. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.40 (+16.7% upside). Prior stop was $40.15. Stop-loss: $40.15.

What are the risks of investing in TPG?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is TPG overvalued or undervalued?

TPG Inc. trades at a P/E of 179.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TPG?

19 analysts cover TPG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $56.

What does TPG Inc. do?TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B),...

TPG is a global alternative asset manager with $303 billion AUM across six platforms: Capital (private equity, $91B), Growth ($32B), Impact ($31B), Credit ($93B), Real Estate ($38B), and Market Solutions ($17B). Revenue is earned through management fees based on committed or invested capital and performance allocations from fund returns. AUM grew 166% from 2021 to 2025, including through acquisitions of Angelo Gordon and Peppertree.

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