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HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedBuy Wait7.3·$82.72
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Hamilton Lane is a high-quality asset manager with strong margins, a four-quarter earnings beat streak, and a deeply discounted valuation — but a confirmed death cross and declining revenue create meaningful near-term headwinds that must resolve before the full value proposition can be captured.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
  • High Quality Margins And Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Deep Valuation Discount Wide Upside→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 21, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Hamilton Lane Incorporated (HLNE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 4 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $78.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.72. Engine's entry $78.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Hamilton Lane manages $142 billion in discretionary private markets AUM and advises on approximately $905 billion in non-discretionary assets across private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, and venture capital strategies. Revenue comes from management and... Read more

$82.72+29.5% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#2 of 229 Asset Management
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.17%
IncomeYield2.90%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout33.84%sustainable
Entry $78.87(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $73.35Target $107.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst consensus$123.13+48.8%8 analysts
$107.12our TP
$82.72price
$123.13mean
$171

Wait for pullback to $78.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.72. Engine's entry $78.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Hamilton Lane Incorporated

About Hamilton Lane Incorporated

Hamilton Lane reported approximately $142 billion in discretionary AUM and $905 billion in non-discretionary AUA as of March 31, 2026, reflecting a 7% compound annual growth rate in AUM from March 31, 2022. The firm serves institutional clients across the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Latin America through 23 global offices staffed by 785 employees including 265 investment professionals. Investment solutions span private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, venture capital, and impact through both drawdown and evergreen fund formats.

Hamilton Lane earns management fees as a percentage of AUM from customized separate accounts ($92 billion) and specialized funds ($50 billion), plus advisory fees from non-discretionary accounts, and incentive fees including carried interest when fund performance clears stated hurdles. Revenue visibility is supported by long-duration vehicles — primary fund commitments run 10 to 15 years — though the 10-K notes predictability remains subject to the mix of fee bases, variability of incentive fees, and the pace of fundraising and deployment. The top 10 clients generated approximately 11% of management and advisory fee revenues and the top 20 generated approximately 16%, with no single client exceeding 2%. A customized separate account or advisory account client may terminate on 30 to 90 days' notice, exposing the company to revenue risk if multiple clients exit simultaneously. The company has been expanding its private wealth channel through evergreen funds offered to high-net-worth individuals via wirehouses, independent wealth managers, and private banks globally, and has initiated tokenized access to certain funds on digital securities exchanges.

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Hamilton Lane's expansion into registered investment company structures and retail distribution subjects the company to heightened SEC oversight, including potential Section 17 affiliate-transaction issues under the Investment Company Act as the firm launches more registered funds. The 10-K discloses exposure to reputational damage and regulatory enforcement risk if third-party distributors improperly sell products, and the firm cannot fully monitor those distribution channels as their number grows. The August 2025 Executive Order on Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors may expand the addressable market but also subjects the company to significant competitive pressure in a new distribution channel that will require substantial investment to access.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From Hamilton Lane Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn32.1%
ROE32.4%
Rev Growth56.5%
Beta1.25
Dividend2.90%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C2.32bearish
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop 10 clients11%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 10 clients generated approximately 11% of management and advisory fee revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
43 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $79.69Resistance $91.61

Price Targets

$73
$79
$107
A.Upside+29.5%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.3%
Max %2.6%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLNE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $78.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.72. Engine's entry $78.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $107.12 (+29.5%), stop $73.35 (−12.8%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

What is the HLNE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $107.12 (+29.5% upside). Target $107.12 (+29.5%), stop $73.35 (−12.8%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $73.35.

What are the risks of investing in HLNE?

Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HLNE overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Lane Incorporated trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HLNE?

13 analysts cover HLNE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $123.

What does Hamilton Lane Incorporated do?Hamilton Lane manages $142 billion in discretionary private markets AUM and advises on approximately $905 billion in...

Hamilton Lane manages $142 billion in discretionary private markets AUM and advises on approximately $905 billion in non-discretionary assets across private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, and venture capital strategies. Revenue comes from management and advisory fees plus carried interest from institutional clients worldwide, with no single client above 2% of fee revenues. The company operates 23 global offices with 785 employees including 265 investment professionals.

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