Travel + Leisure Co. is a high-quality vacation ownership business with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, free cash flow conversion of 225% of net income, and three consecutive earnings beats, yet the stock is overbought at an RSI of 76 and has nearly fully closed the gap to analyst price targets, leaving limited near-term upside.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Financial Health Score→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Strong Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Sell if holding. At $68.38, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts) and RCI, the largest vacation exchange network with 3.3 million members and 3,600 affiliated resorts in 101 countries. Revenue in 2025 came 46% from vacation... Read more
Sell if holding. At $68.38, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Travel Leisure Co.
About Travel Leisure Co.
Travel + Leisure Co.'s 2025 revenue split: 46% from vacation ownership interest (VOI) sales, 40% from fee-for-service sources, and 11% from consumer financing, with 88% of the total derived from the United States. The Vacation Ownership segment had 797,000 owner families across more than 280 resorts in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Asia Pacific. The Travel and Membership segment's RCI exchange network counted 3.3 million members and 3,600 affiliated resorts in 101 countries as of December 31, 2025.
Travel + Leisure earns revenue through upfront VOI sales — 68% of which were financed in 2025 at a weighted average FICO score of 746 on new originations — annual maintenance fees from the 797,000-family owner base, and fee-based exchange and travel club subscriptions. Upgrade sales to existing owners accounted for 72% of net VOI sales in 2025, providing repeat revenue without new customer acquisition cost. Consumer receivables are securitized through warehouse and term facilities managed by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Travel + Leisure Consumer Finance. RCI competes primarily with Interval International in the exchange market and faces pressure from timeshare developers building internal exchange networks. Annual exchange membership retention averaged 87% over the past three years. The 10-K states no single customer, developer, or group accounted for more than 10% of revenues in 2025.
Show full overview
Travel + Leisure's 2025 VOI financing generated $1.60 billion in new receivables on $2.33 billion of gross VOI sales, with the loan portfolio 94% current as of December 31, 2025. If consumer confidence declines — through unemployment spikes, higher borrowing costs, or sustained inflationary pressure — VOI cancellations and loan delinquency rates could rise, compressing net interest income and potentially straining securitization trust performance. Separately, 35% of managed properties sit in Tier I windstorm exposure areas and 22% are in high-risk wildfire states, meaning major weather events could elevate owner maintenance fees and reduce timeshare product appeal.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
From Travel Leisure Co.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Travel Leisure Co.
Latest news
- NEWS Newsweek Names Travel + Leisure Co. Among the Most Trustworthy Companies in America in 2025 - Quantisnow — Quantisnow positive
- NEWS Travel + Leisure’s (NYSE:TNL) Q2 CY2026 Sales Top Estimates - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (TNL) Travel + Leisure Co. Posts Q2 Adjusted EPS $1.88 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $1.88 - marketscreen — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Travel + Leisure: Delinquency Fears Appear Overdone (NYSE:TNL) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Travel+Leisure Co (TNL) Shares Fall 13.6% -- What GF Score of 83 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States88%10-K Item 1: 'we derived 88% of our revenues in the United States'
- MEDIUMProductvacation ownership interest sales46%10-K Item 1: 'we generated 46% of our revenues from the sale of vacation ownership interests'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $68.38, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $64.60. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $75.89 (+11.0% upside). Prior stop was $64.60. Stop-loss: $64.60.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.
Travel Leisure Co. trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover TNL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $87.
What does Travel Leisure Co. do?Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts)...
Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts) and RCI, the largest vacation exchange network with 3.3 million members and 3,600 affiliated resorts in 101 countries. Revenue in 2025 came 46% from vacation ownership interest sales, 40% from fee-for-service streams, and 11% from consumer financing; 88% was U.S.-derived.