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TNLTravel Leisure Co.Hold5.8·$74.12-0.01%
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Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was... Read more

$74.12+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#7 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.48%
IncomeYield3.24%(5y avg 3.64%)Payout63.51%
Stop $69.98Target $75.76(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$87.08+17.5%12 analysts
$75.76our TP
$74.12price
$87.08mean
$105

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Overbought (RSI 75)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta1.20
Dividend3.24%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$83+11.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, we derived 88% of our revenues in the United States ("U.S.") and 12% internationally.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.06Resistance $76.07

Price Targets

$70
$76
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $75.76 (+2.2%), stop $69.98 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.76 (+2.3% upside). Target $75.76 (+2.2%), stop $69.98 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $69.98.

What are the risks of investing in TNL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 75).

Is TNL overvalued or undervalued?

Travel Leisure Co. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TNL?

17 analysts cover TNL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $87.

What does Travel Leisure Co. do?Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts...

Travel + Leisure Co. operates the world's largest vacation ownership business (797,000 owner families, 280+ resorts under Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands) and RCI, the world's largest vacation exchange network with 3.3M members and 3,600 affiliated resorts. Revenue in 2025 was 46% from VOI sales, 40% from fee-for-service, and 11% from consumer financing. 88% of revenues came from the United States.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospita) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, I)
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