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TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc.Sell5.5·$18.56-4.03%
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Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality.

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada... Read more

$18.56+42.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#17 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.60%
Stop $17.18Target $26.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$29.20+57.3%20 analysts
$26.28our TP
$18.56price
$29.20mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors
Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)314.4
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA-33.1
Profit Mgn-9.2%
ROE-65.7%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV104%elevated
Max Pain$26+40.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertwo independent distributors
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, two independent distributors each accounted for more than 10% of our worldwide sales.'
  • HIGHSupplierUnomedical A/S
    10-K Item 1: 'we purchase all of our currently marketed infusion sets from a third-party supplier, Unomedical A/S, a subsidiary of the ConvaTec Group.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.1
52w Position
2.5
Support Resistance
2.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.0
Current Ratio
9.4
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
8.5
GatesMomentum 5.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.26Resistance $20.62

Price Targets

$17
$26
A.Upside+41.6%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNDM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $17.18. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNDM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.28 (+42.3% upside). Prior stop was $17.18. Stop-loss: $17.18.

What are the risks of investing in TNDM?

Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is TNDM overvalued or undervalued?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 314.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TNDM?

29 analysts cover TNDM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. do?Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly...

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada distributors, with international markets transitioning to direct sales. Two US distributors each exceeded 10% of worldwide sales in 2025.

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