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TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.Sell5.5·$74.67+1.47%
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TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.67: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplants, and provides the National OCS Program (NOP) as a turnkey outsourced procurement and logistics service. Revenue of $605.5M... Read more

$74.67+39.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#19 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.32%
Stop $67.81Target $101.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$116.78+56.4%9 analysts
$101.60our TP
$74.67price
$116.78mean
$142

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.67: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Wide economic moat
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.7
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA23.3
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE45.2%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta1.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV122%elevated
Max Pain$170+127.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.1
Support Resistance
2.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.8
Strong growth: 21% YoY
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.40Resistance $76.94

Price Targets

$68
$102
A.Upside+36.1%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$117

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.67: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $67.81. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.60 (+39.3% upside). Prior stop was $67.81. Stop-loss: $67.81.

What are the risks of investing in TMDX?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.

Is TMDX overvalued or undervalued?

TransMedics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TMDX?

19 analysts cover TMDX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $117.

What does TransMedics Group, Inc. do?TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform...

TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplants, and provides the National OCS Program (NOP) as a turnkey outsourced procurement and logistics service. Revenue of $605.5M in 2025 (37% growth) is largely recurring from single-use OCS disposable sets.

Related stocks: GMED (Globus Medical, Inc.) · PODD (Insulet Corporation) · AORT (Artivion, Inc.) · IRTC (iRhythm Holdings, Inc.) · MASI (Masimo Corporation)
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