Tilray Brands shows an extreme risk/reward skew with 117% analyst upside and a passed asymmetry gate, but quality below the engine's floor, a confirmed downtrend with a death-cross block, and high short interest keep the engine's recommendation at exit.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Value Trap↓Deteriorating
- High Asymmetry Large Analyst Upside↑Improving
- Failed Momentum Confirmed Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 28, 2026
Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum.
Tilray Brands operates four segments: Distribution (36% of fiscal 2026 revenue), Cannabis (29%), Beverage (28%) and Wellness (7%). It sells adult-use and medical cannabis in Canada and internationally, craft beer and spirits led by SweetWater, Breckenridge and the newly acquired... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 11, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Tilray Brands, Inc.
About Tilray Brands, Inc.
Tilray Brands reported net revenue of $915.5 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, up from $821.3 million a year earlier, split among Distribution at $327.2 million (36%), Cannabis at $268.3 million (29%), Beverage at $254.0 million (28%) and Wellness at $65.9 million (7%). Headquartered in Leamington, Ontario and New York, the company operates in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia and Latin America and supplies medical cannabis to patients in over 20 countries.
The Beverage segment ranks as the 4th largest craft brewer in the United States according to the Brewers Association, with brands including SweetWater, Montauk, Breckenridge and Blue Point, and its beverage alcohol products were predominantly sold in the United States during fiscal 2026. Tilray completed the BrewDog acquisition between March and April 2026 to build an international platform and holds a Carlsberg license for U.S. production and distribution starting January 1, 2027. In Cannabis, Canadian adult-use sales were $236.4 million before excise taxes of $84.0 million, and international cannabis revenue reached $84.9 million, helped by EU-GMP facilities in Portugal and Germany and a German distribution network through CC Pharma. The Distribution segment resells pharmaceutical and wellness products, and Wellness centers on Manitoba Harvest hemp foods. In April 2026 the company also acquired UK clinic and digital pharmacy platform Lyphe and holds a 25% interest in a Panamanian medical cannabis venture.
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Regulatory change is the clearest swing factor. In April 2026 the U.S. Department of Justice issued an order moving FDA-approved cannabis products and state-licensed medical cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, while the DEA conducts an expedited hearing on broader rescheduling that faces challenges in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Tilray states it expects to be positioned to compete in a federally compliant U.S. market if that path holds. In Canada, each province and territory can separately regulate cannabis distribution, and restrictions on branding, packaging and merchandising may limit how the company differentiates its adult-use brands.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From Tilray Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Tilray Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Roth Capital Partners Maintains Buy Rating on Tilray Brands — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026
- NEWS Blue Point Brewing Co. Announces 22nd Annual Cask Ales Festival — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026
- NEWS West Ham United F.C. and BrewDog Unveil 'Boleyn Brew' — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tilray’s Q1 Results Show A Company Transformed — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tilray Brands’ Unit Tilray Medical Secures Key Regulatory Approval For In-House Testing At Portugal Facility — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States beverage sales10-K Item 1: 'our beverage alcohol products were predominantly sold in the United States'
- MEDIUMregulatoryCanadian provinces and territories cannabis distribution10-K Item 1A: 'each province and territory of Canada has the ability to separately regulate the distribution of cannabis within such province or territory'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 11, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Analyst target $4.88 (+81.5%), stop $2.54 (−5.9%), A.R:R 6.9:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $4.88 (+81.5% upside). Analyst target $4.88 (+81.5%), stop $2.54 (−5.9%), A.R:R 6.9:1. Stop-loss: $2.54.
Market cap $398M below $400M minimum.
Tilray Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
17 analysts cover TLRY with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $6.
What does Tilray Brands, Inc. do?Tilray Brands operates four segments: Distribution (36% of fiscal 2026 revenue), Cannabis (29%), Beverage (28%) and...
Tilray Brands operates four segments: Distribution (36% of fiscal 2026 revenue), Cannabis (29%), Beverage (28%) and Wellness (7%). It sells adult-use and medical cannabis in Canada and internationally, craft beer and spirits led by SweetWater, Breckenridge and the newly acquired BrewDog, hemp foods under Manitoba Harvest, and pharmaceutical and wellness products through distribution. Net revenue was $915.5 million for the year ended May 31, 2026.