Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
TLRY · Why this verdict
Why Tilray Brands (TLRY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tilray Brands shows an extreme risk/reward skew with 117% analyst upside and a passed asymmetry gate, but quality below the engine's floor, a confirmed downtrend with a death-cross block, and high short interest keep the engine's recommendation at exit.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bear case flags quality at 2.3, below the 4.0 floor, part of three value-trap signals including margin compression, material insider selling, and negative free cash flow. Bear case | The quality score should climb above 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop from 3 out of 5 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe current ratio of 9.4 shows very substantial near-term liquidity, giving ample runway to absorb continued cash burn. | ||
Sentiment notes cite 117% analyst upside, consistent with the engine's asymmetry gate passing at a ratio of 8.52, among the highest in the bundle, against a 1.5 threshold. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst upside should stay elevated and the asymmetry ratio should hold well above the 1.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage is explicitly flagged as dampening the signal, and the position-size recommendation is still avoid given the institutional-constrained edge type for this $0.6B market cap. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 3.6 against the 4.5 threshold, with momentum notes describing a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and a hard-blocking death-cross technical signal. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the downtrend reverses over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe drawdown of 80% from the 52-week high, cited in the suitability rationale, means much of the potential downside from this downtrend may already have played out. | ||
Risk notes describe short interest of 15% as justified, alongside high implied volatility of 93%, both consistent with the bearish technical picture. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline meaningfully from 15% and implied volatility should compress toward a more typical range over the next 12 months if bearish positioning is unwinding. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio of 0.571 is skewed toward calls rather than puts, suggesting options positioning does not reflect heavy bearish hedging despite the justified short interest. | ||
The bear case flags quality at 2.3, below the 4.0 floor, part of three value-trap signals including margin compression, material insider selling, and negative free cash flow.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb above 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop from 3 out of 5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe current ratio of 9.4 shows very substantial near-term liquidity, giving ample runway to absorb continued cash burn.
Sentiment notes cite 117% analyst upside, consistent with the engine's asymmetry gate passing at a ratio of 8.52, among the highest in the bundle, against a 1.5 threshold.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst upside should stay elevated and the asymmetry ratio should hold well above the 1.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage is explicitly flagged as dampening the signal, and the position-size recommendation is still avoid given the institutional-constrained edge type for this $0.6B market cap.
The momentum gate failed at 3.6 against the 4.5 threshold, with momentum notes describing a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and a hard-blocking death-cross technical signal.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the downtrend reverses over the next 12 months.
CounterThe drawdown of 80% from the 52-week high, cited in the suitability rationale, means much of the potential downside from this downtrend may already have played out.
Risk notes describe short interest of 15% as justified, alongside high implied volatility of 93%, both consistent with the bearish technical picture.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully from 15% and implied volatility should compress toward a more typical range over the next 12 months if bearish positioning is unwinding.
CounterThe put/call ratio of 0.571 is skewed toward calls rather than puts, suggesting options positioning does not reflect heavy bearish hedging despite the justified short interest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 109%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $69,225 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:69d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.89
Upside
+81.5%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 11, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -88% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 6.89.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Sentiment at 8.7, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, and Momentum at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Asymmetry Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 8.52.
- P2Quality Below Floor Value Trap
Trip ifQuality score rises above 3.5 from the current 2.3.
- P3Failed Momentum Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.6.
- P4High Short Interest Elevated Iv
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float from the current 15%.