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SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.Sell6.0·$207.34-1.41%
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Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $207.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away).

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail... Read more

$207.340.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.12%
IncomeYield4.18%(5y avg 5.11%)Payout60.15%
Stop $198.09Target $205.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$214.40+3.4%20 analysts
$205.19our TP
$207.34price
$214.40mean
$194
$250

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $207.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.9% away)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)31.4
Mkt Cap$79.9B
EV/EBITDA20.0
Profit Mgn70.6%
ROE113.6%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.35
Dividend4.18%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV58%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02HIGH
    David Simon, Chairman/CEO/President, died March 23, 2026. Eli Simon (age 38, COO, Board member) appointed CEO and President effective March 23, 2026. No change to Eli Simon's compensation announced.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    Martin J. Cicco appointed to Board effective Feb 5, 2026; Board size increased from 13 to 14 members. Independent director. Committee assignments not yet determined. No arrangements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.1
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
5.8
P/OCF: 19.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $196.48Resistance $209.38

Price Targets

$198
$205
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $207.34 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $198.09. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $205.19 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $198.09. Stop-loss: $198.09.

What are the risks of investing in SPG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?

Simon Property Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 31.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPG?

26 analysts cover SPG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $214.

What does Simon Property Group, Inc. do?Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70...

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail tenant rents and overage rents based on reported tenant sales. The company had no single customer exceeding 10% of revenues.

Related stocks: FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) · BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · KIM (Kimco Realty Corporation (HC)) · O (Realty Income Corporation)
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