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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. At $103.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements.

Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity, and cellular infrastructure, serving OEM customers in infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial markets globally. Revenue from silicon... Read more

$103.30+7.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#39 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $96.13Target $110.79(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$105.54+2.2%13 analysts
$110.79our TP
$103.30price
$105.54mean
$89
$122

Sell if holding. At $103.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors
Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)36.1
Mkt Cap$9.8B
EV/EBITDA61.9
Profit Mgn-3.8%
ROE-7.4%
Rev Growth9.3%
Beta2.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.25bearish
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$50-51.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierChina, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors
    10-K Item 1A: 'A majority of our package and test operations are performed by third-party contractors based in China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.'
  • HIGHSupplierChina rare earth elements
    10-K Item 1A: 'Certain of our products rely on rare earth elements for their manufacturing, of which a significant majority are sourced from China.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
2.6
Value Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $80.25Resistance $113.05

Price Targets

$96
$111
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $103.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $96.13. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.79 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $96.13. Stop-loss: $96.13.

What are the risks of investing in SMTC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam package and test contractors; Concentration risk — Supplier: China rare earth elements; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SMTC overvalued or undervalued?

Semtech Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMTC?

22 analysts cover SMTC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Semtech Corporation do?Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT...

Semtech designs and markets high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity, and cellular infrastructure, serving OEM customers in infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial markets globally. Revenue from silicon solutions and IoT modules/routers/gateways sold to device makers, enterprises, and solution providers.

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