Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $167.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%).
Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless, and IoT Systems & Connectivity. Total revenue was $1.05B in FY2026; 74% of net sales go... Read more
Sell if holding. At $167.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Semtech Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS SMTC Maintains Positive Rating by Susquehanna -- Price Target Ra - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Unlocking Q1 Potential of Semtech (SMTC): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Unlocking Q1 potential of Semtech (SMTC): Exploring Wall Street estimates for key metrics - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Semtech (SMTC) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Semtech Corp (SMTC) Shares Fall 3.8% -- What GF Score of 69 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina47%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to customers located in China (including Hong Kong) comprised 47% of our net sales in fiscal year 2026.'
- MEDIUMCustomerCustomer B14%10-K Item 1: 'Customer B| 14%| | 13%| | 10%'
- MEDIUMCustomerCustomer A11%10-K Item 1: 'Customer A| 11%| | 10%| | *'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $167.00, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $155.04. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $178.20 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $155.04. Stop-loss: $155.04.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (47.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Near 52-week high (3.3% away).
Semtech Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.9). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SMTC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $205.
What does Semtech Corporation do?Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across...
Semtech is a provider of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and IoT connectivity solutions across three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless, and IoT Systems & Connectivity. Total revenue was $1.05B in FY2026; 74% of net sales go through distributors, and the company operates globally with 47% of FY2026 sales to China.