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SMPLThe Simply Good Foods CompanyHold5.5·$11.93-0.08%
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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and... Read more

$11.93+26.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.36%
Stop $11.09Target $15.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$17.33+45.3%9 analysts
$15.08our TP
$11.93price
$17.33mean
$39

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jun 25, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn-7.5%
ROE-6.4%
Rev Growth-9.4%
Beta0.16
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV146%elevated
Max Pain$3-79.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
1.3
Support Resistance
3.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.89Resistance $12.40

Price Targets

$11
$15
A.Upside+26.4%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts18
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$17

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMPL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $15.08 (+26.4%), stop $11.09 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.08 (+26.4% upside). Target $15.08 (+26.4%), stop $11.09 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $11.09.

What are the risks of investing in SMPL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SMPL overvalued or undervalued?

The Simply Good Foods Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SMPL?

18 analysts cover SMPL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does The Simply Good Foods Company do?The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing,...

The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, protein powders, and recipes under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brand names. It also provides confectionery products, such as peanut butter cups, brownies, caramel candy bites, chocolatey coated peanut candies, and caramel candy bars. In addition, the company licenses certain products that contain its brands and logos; and distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug stores, club and convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including questnutrition.com, atkins.com, liveowyn.com, amazon.com and others. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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