Simply Good Foods trades at a forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.03, offering deep value ahead of an imminent earnings event where the company has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, though a confirmed price downtrend and high short interest of 12% present meaningful near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value At 7x Forward Earnings↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Streak Near Catalyst↑Improving
- Price Downtrend Technical Headwind↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 28, 2025
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality.
The Simply Good Foods Company markets nutritious snacking products — protein bars, RTD protein shakes, and confections — under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brands, sold through an asset-light model that relies entirely on third-party contract manufacturers. In fiscal 2025,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About The Simply Good Foods Company
About The Simply Good Foods Company
Simply Good Foods relies on Walmart for approximately 31% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales — 24% through Walmart's mass retail channel and 7% through Sam's Club and e-commerce — with Amazon adding another 18%, leaving no other single customer above 10%. The company markets nutritious snacking products under three brands, Quest, Atkins, and OWYN (acquired June 2024), sold primarily in North America through grocery, club, mass, and e-commerce channels. Simply Good Foods operates an asset-light model, owning no manufacturing plants and running only two R&D labs, in El Segundo, California, and Broomfield, Colorado.
Simply Good Foods outsources all manufacturing to a diversified pool of contract manufacturers, including exclusively for its international business, while retaining in-house sales, marketing, brand management, and product development; core ingredients — cocoa, dairy, proteins, soy, and nuts — are sourced from several suppliers under competitively bid agreements rather than single-source contracts. Channel mix varies by brand: in fiscal 2025, approximately 76% of Quest's U.S. gross sales, 81% of Atkins's, and 73% of OWYN's ran through mass retail, grocery, and convenience channels, while e-commerce accounted for 22%, 19%, and 26% of gross sales for Quest, Atkins, and OWYN respectively. Marketing leans heavily on social media influencers and streaming/broadcast advertising, with roughly 57% of fiscal 2025 selling and marketing expense spent on advertising, and retailer contracts are struck on an at-will basis with no recurring or minimum purchase commitments.
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Simply Good Foods' own filing flags a demand-side risk unusual among packaged-food peers: the rise of FDA-approved chronic weight-management medications is reshaping how consumers manage weight, and the company acknowledges it must convince consumers that its protein-rich, low-carb products complement rather than compete with those medications — a positioning bet rather than a settled fact. That risk compounds the retailer at-will contract structure noted above: Walmart and Amazon require no minimum purchase commitments, so any shift in how those retailers stock nutrition-aisle products in response to changing weight-management-drug-driven shopper behavior could show up quickly in sales, without the cushion of a multi-year supply agreement to smooth the transition.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The Simply Good Foods Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — The Simply Good Foods Company
Latest news
- NEWS SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company) posts Q1 2026 EPS beat and 9 percent year-over-year revenue growth, shares rise nea — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- NEWS SMPL Investor Alert: Simply Good Foods Securities Fraud Investigation - Investors With Losses May Seek to Lead the Poten — PR Newswire negative
- NEWS Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Implements Cost-Saving Strategies for G - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart Inc.31%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our largest retailer, Walmart Inc., represented approximately 31% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2025'
- LOWCustomerAmazon18%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our next largest retailer, Amazon, represented approximately 18% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP & Chief Human Resources Officer Amy Held will depart by June 1, 2026 as part of corporate realignment initiatives announced April 20, 2026. She will receive severance-plan benefits and accelerated vesting of 6,881 RSUs; no successor named in this filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -11.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.08. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $10.44 reached (−3.7% from $10.84); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $10.08. Stop-loss: $10.08.
Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
The Simply Good Foods Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover SMPL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $12.
What does The Simply Good Foods Company do?The Simply Good Foods Company markets nutritious snacking products — protein bars, RTD protein shakes, and confections...
The Simply Good Foods Company markets nutritious snacking products — protein bars, RTD protein shakes, and confections — under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brands, sold through an asset-light model that relies entirely on third-party contract manufacturers. In fiscal 2025, Walmart represented approximately 31% of consolidated sales and Amazon about 18%, with no other customer exceeding 10%.