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SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc.Sell5.4·$92.41+0.54%
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Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away).

Selective Insurance Group is a NJ-based property and casualty insurer selling Standard Commercial Lines (79% of 2025 NPW), Standard Personal Lines (8%), and E&S Lines (13%) exclusively through independent agents in the U.S. The company is expanding toward near-national footprint... Read more

$92.41-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#18 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield26.17%
IncomeYield1.81%(5y avg 1.45%)Payout22.16%sustainable
Stop $87.97Target $90.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$92.43+0.0%7 analysts
$90.88our TP
$92.41price
$92.43mean
$72
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.3% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.31
Dividend1.81%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$110+19.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
4.5
Value Rank
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.7
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 181.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.6
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.86Resistance $92.73

Price Targets

$88
$91
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $87.97. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SIGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.88 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $87.97. Stop-loss: $87.97.

What are the risks of investing in SIGI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is SIGI overvalued or undervalued?

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SIGI?

15 analysts cover SIGI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Selective Insurance Group, Inc. do?Selective Insurance Group is a NJ-based property and casualty insurer selling Standard Commercial Lines (79% of 2025...

Selective Insurance Group is a NJ-based property and casualty insurer selling Standard Commercial Lines (79% of 2025 NPW), Standard Personal Lines (8%), and E&S Lines (13%) exclusively through independent agents in the U.S. The company is expanding toward near-national footprint for Standard Commercial, with Contractors being the largest SBU at 43% of Standard Commercial DPW.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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