Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.49
- ▸Attractively valued
SIGI · Why this verdict
Why Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 1.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 319% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 181.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.59
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.59 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Catalyst at 3.5, and Technical at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.