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SEMSelect Medical Holdings CorporaSell5.0·$16.57+0.18%
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Select Medical Holdings Corpora (SEM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality.

Select Medical is one of the largest U.S. operators of critical illness recovery hospitals (104 in 28 states), rehabilitation hospitals (38 in 15 states), and outpatient rehabilitation clinics (1,917 in 39 states), generating $5.45B in 2025 revenue. Revenue is earned from... Read more

$16.57-1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#22 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.98%
IncomeYield1.51%(5y avg 1.80%)Payout23.36%sustainable
Stop $16.47Target $16.27(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$16.63+0.3%4 analysts
$16.27our TP
$16.57price
$16.63mean
$16
$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-14.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn2.4%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta0.79
Dividend1.51%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish
IV139%elevated
Max Pain$20+20.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from providing services to patients covered under the Medicare program represented approximately 31%, 29%, and 29% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved one-year deferral of scheduled vesting dates for certain equity awards held by Executive Chairman Robert A. Ortenzio and Senior EVP Martin F. Jackson. No new grants, departures, or appointments.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.2
Roa
2.3
Fcf Quality
2.4
Operating Margin
2.8
Roe
3.3
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
4.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 30% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.0
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-29.7%)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
4.1
Value Rank
7.9
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.36Resistance $16.60

Price Targets

$16
$16
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SEM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.47. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.27 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $16.47. Stop-loss: $16.47.

What are the risks of investing in SEM?

Target reached (-14.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.05% of cap).

Is SEM overvalued or undervalued?

Select Medical Holdings Corpora trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEM?

12 analysts cover SEM with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Select Medical Holdings Corpora do?Select Medical is one of the largest U.S. operators of critical illness recovery hospitals (104 in 28 states),...

Select Medical is one of the largest U.S. operators of critical illness recovery hospitals (104 in 28 states), rehabilitation hospitals (38 in 15 states), and outpatient rehabilitation clinics (1,917 in 39 states), generating $5.45B in 2025 revenue. Revenue is earned from patient services reimbursed by Medicare (29% of 2025 revenue), commercial insurance, and Medicaid.

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