Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| p ocf | 2.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 36.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
SAFE · Why this verdict
Why Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -266% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -61 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 457.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+3.5%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.83>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.5, Sentiment at 6.5, and Peer rank at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Catalyst at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.