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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary providing wholesale brokerage and delegated underwriting for complex, hard-to-place risks. It is the second-largest US P&C wholesale broker and largest US P&C managing underwriter; 78% of 2025 placed premiums... Read more

$30.70+39.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
Stop $29.01Target $43.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$47.94+56.2%17 analysts
$43.15our TP
$30.70price
$47.94mean
$76

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.0
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth17.6%
Beta
Dividend1.50%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$25-18.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop five retail brokers25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five retail brokers with which we place business represented 25.2% and 26.9% of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomertop five insurance carriers21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five insurance carriers (excluding all Lloyd's syndicates combined) for which we place business represented an aggregate of 20.6% and 20.9% of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Ryan Specialty board approved three-year Empower Program restructuring on February 10, 2026, targeting approximately $80M annual savings by 2029 through streamlining brokerage, binding, and underwriting operations.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.91Resistance $38.61

Price Targets

$29
$43
A.Upside+40.6%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RYAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $29.01. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RYAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.15 (+39.2% upside). Prior stop was $29.01. Stop-loss: $29.01.

What are the risks of investing in RYAN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is RYAN overvalued or undervalued?

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 74.0 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RYAN?

25 analysts cover RYAN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. do?Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary providing wholesale brokerage and delegated...

Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary providing wholesale brokerage and delegated underwriting for complex, hard-to-place risks. It is the second-largest US P&C wholesale broker and largest US P&C managing underwriter; 78% of 2025 placed premiums were in the E&S market. Revenue comes from commissions and fees from retail brokers and insurance carriers.

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