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RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.Sell6.2·$35.64+3.33%
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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Sell if holding. At $35.64, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.2%.

Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary, the second-largest US P&C wholesale broker and largest US P&C managing underwriter by premium volume. It operates through Wholesale Brokerage (53.4% of net commission/fees), Binding Authority (12.4%), and... Read more

$35.64+7.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.32%
IncomeYield1.46%Payout59.76%sustainable
Stop $33.15Target $38.22(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$42.47+19.2%17 analysts
$38.22our TP
$35.64price
$42.47mean
$31
$76

Sell if holding. At $35.64, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.2%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.2%
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.5
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta0.64
Dividend1.46%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV106%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop five retail brokers25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five retail brokers with which we place business represented 25.2% and 26.9% of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • LOWCustomertop five insurance carriers (excluding Lloyd's)21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top five insurance carriers (excluding all Lloyd's syndicates combined) for which we place business represented an aggregate of 20.6%...of our revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Ryan Specialty Board approved a three-year 'Empower Program' restructuring on February 10, 2026, targeting ~$80M annual savings by 2029. Covers Business Platform Optimization and Compensation & Benefits. Commences Q1 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spot8K SERIOUS 2.05Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.67Resistance $36.09

Price Targets

$33
$38
A.Upside+7.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RYAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $35.64, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.2%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $33.15. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RYAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.22 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.15. Stop-loss: $33.15.

What are the risks of investing in RYAN?

Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is RYAN overvalued or undervalued?

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.5 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RYAN?

26 analysts cover RYAN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. do?Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary, the second-largest US P&C wholesale broker and...

Ryan Specialty is an international specialty insurance intermediary, the second-largest US P&C wholesale broker and largest US P&C managing underwriter by premium volume. It operates through Wholesale Brokerage (53.4% of net commission/fees), Binding Authority (12.4%), and Underwriting Management (34.2%) segments. It is compensated primarily through commissions and fees.

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