Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
RYAN · Why this verdict
Why Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 547% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $300,181 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 1.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 160.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.29
Upside
+21.8%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.29 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Technical at 4.3, and Catalyst at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.